Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Maliki The Weak Link In Bush's Chain

Continuing the negative tenor of the coverage of President Bush's Iraq plans, a number of media sources are noting the Iraqi government will play a key role in the strategy's eventual success or failure. That reliance on the Iraqis is being described a weakness in Bush's plan. The Washington Times says Bush's "legacy is now in the hands of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the head of Iraq's government who is in a tenuous position in Baghdad and quickly losing the confidence of Congress and the Bush administration." The Iraqi government continues to be beset by divisions: The Financial Times reports "Iraq's most senior Sunni politician" yesterday "launched a bitter personal attack on the country's prime minister, warning Nouri al-Maliki that the Iraqi government had only limited time to break with sectarian groups and start delivering to ordinary citizens." Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi "said US officials believed Mr Maliki was 'behind schedule' and only had limited time to try for national reconciliation."

The Christian Science Monitor reports that under Bush's plan, Maliki's government "is supposed to move new Iraqi forces into Baghdad within weeks. If these Iraqi units don't materialize, the US may be forced to reevaluate its strategy, according to administration officials." The AP says the "differences" between the Bush and Maliki "administrations could hamper efforts to forge a united strategy to deal with Iraq's sectarian violence, while adding pressure on the White House to end America's role there." A possible source of friction is put forth by the Washington Post this morning: "The Kurdish makeup of two of the three Iraqi army brigades due to be sent to Baghdad under...Bush's new strategic plan is drawing concern from Iraqi and US experts." The Kurds' reliability in the field against both Sunnis and Shiites was described as questionable.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that at a press conference yesterday, Gen. Casey and the US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad "played down reports of tension between the American military command and the Iraqi government led by...al-Maliki, saying that any period of transition will have some 'friction.'" The Los Angeles Times says Khalilzad and Casey made their statements "despite widespread doubts about the efficacy and loyalties of Iraq's Shiite-dominated government and armed forces," and adds "US officials have voiced frustration over the failure of the Iraqi government...to confront Shiite militias that have ties to political parties in the government." USA Today runs a similar report on the US officials' statements.

NBC Nightly News raises another potentially explosive issue: With Iraqi troops in charge on an operational level, "Iraqi troops will often pick targets and routes, in effect leading Americans." Military analyst Loren Thompson said, "We're not clear on who will be in charge. What if the Iraqi commander's incompetent? What if they have hidden loyalties?"

Casey Lowers Expectations The AP reports the outgoing commander of US troops in Iraq, Gen. George Casey, told reporters "he did not expect significant results" from the boost in US troop levels "until the summer and fall, for the first time putting a timeframe around the plan."

Warner Undecided In a Newsweek "Web Exclusive," Eleanor Clift interviews GOP Sen. John Warner, whose opinion on the President's Iraq plan is believed to carry significant weight in the GOP caucus. Said Warner, "At the current time I've indicated that [the president's plan] deserves very serious consideration by the Congress." Warner added that his "past actions have indicated my willingness to do what I think is in the best interest of the nation -- and if that necessitated visiting the president as I've done twice [in the last two weeks] -- I wouldn't hesitate."

Poll Finds Public Opposed To Surge USA Today reports this morning Bush's "address to the nation last week failed to move public opinion in support of his plan to increase US troop levels in Iraq and left Americans more pessimistic about the likely outcome of the war." A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll found "more than 6 of 10 people back the idea of a non-binding congressional resolution expressing opposition to Bush's plan to commit an additional 21,500 U.S. troops to Iraq." However, "those surveyed are split, 47%-50%, over whether Congress should deny funding for the additional troops."

Bush Mulls Health Insurance Tax Breaks

The Wall Street Journal says President Bush is "considering promoting a tax-code change making it easier for people to buy health insurance for themselves in the open market, rather than relying on employers." Bush's "coming State of the Union address and annual budget proposal are likely to include other ideas for easing the crunch, Republicans close to the White House said." The Administration 'also is likely to make another push for expanding health savings accounts."

Health Care Political Alliances Shifting The Los Angeles Times reports, "In a sign of how the political climate is shifting, powerful business interests that once teamed up to defeat Democratic healthcare plans are joining with labor unions and other unlikely allies to advocate extending medical insurance to millions of Americans. Among the champions of change is the trade group representing the nation's leading health insurance firms." The Hill also reports that "unusual alliances of interest groups are coalescing to bring a unified front before Congress to spur federal action on healthcare costs and the uninsured."

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Democrats Face Tight Budget

The Washington Post reports that in his State of the Union address, President Bush "will list among his goals a balanced federal budget, a shift for a president who has presided over record deficits while aggressively cutting taxes." Analysts say the President "is calling the bluff of Democrats, who won control of Congress in part by accusing Bush of reckless fiscal policies. While Bush now shares the Democrats' goal to erase the deficit by 2012, the politically perilous work of making that happen -- cutting spending or raising taxes -- falls to the Democratic-run Congress." Meanwhile, Roll Call says Democrats "still are hunting for ways to cover the long-term costs of their policy objectives, and they already are finding these offsets hard to come by, especially if they want to avoid allegations that they are the same old 'tax and spend liberals' they've always been."

Libby Jurors To Be Quizzed On Politics

The AP reports this morning that potential jurors in the perjury trial of former White House aide I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby are likely to "be asked their opinions of the Bush administration, political scandals and the Iraq war Tuesday, foreshadowing the political tenor of a lengthy trial." Attorneys "for both sides recognize the politics behind the case and have proposed questions for jurors about their views on government, politics and the media." The Washington Times notes Special prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald has "spent more than $1.4 million on his investigation, which has not produced charges against anyone for exposing" Valerie Plame "as a CIA employee." US District Judge Reggie Walton, "a Republican who was one of Mr. Bush's first judicial nominees in 2001 and who served as deputy drug czar under the first President Bush, has made clear that he will limit arguments to facts and will not allow the proceedings to turn into a circus trial." The Los Angeles Times analyzes Libby's expected defense strategy, which it calls "a novel one: that he was so preoccupied with life-or-death affairs of state that it affected his ability to accurately recall events for federal investigators. Prosecutors have a simpler explanation: He lied."

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Bush Faces Rebellion At The RNC

The Washington Times reports, "Rebellion is brewing among conservatives on the Republican National Committee over President's Bush's attempt to 'impose' Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida as 'general chairman' of the party, who favors 'amnesty' for illegal aliens." The conservatives, "one of whom accused the Bush White House of 'outsourcing' party leadership -- say the general-chairman post does not exist under RNC rules, which can be changed only at the party's presidential nominating convention."

GOP Scrambles As Allard Announces Retirement

In what's being described as a further challenge to GOP efforts to recapture the Senate, the AP reports Colorado Sen. Wayne Allard (R) said yesterday he would abide by a 1996 pledge to serve only two terms and would not seek reelection. Rep. Mark Udall, "a popular five-term congressman," is already in on the Democratic side. On the GOP side, former Gov. Bill Owens (R) is expected to consider the race, while former Rep. Scott McInnis says he will run if Owens does not. The Denver Post reports that fiery anti-immigration advocate Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) "will not seek Allard's seat in 2008, Tancredo spokesman Carlos Espinosa said today. Tancredo encouraged...McInnis to run." The Rocky Mountain News reports, "Even before Allard's decision, the Cook Political Report and the Washington Post political blog had called Colorado's 2008 Senate contest one of the top races to watch."

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Pawlenty Joins McCain Campaign

Sen. John McCain secured a high-profile endorsement yesterday Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a Republican who survived a tough reelection bid in "blue" Minnesota last year, has agreed to act as co-chair of McCain's exploratory committee. In announcing his decision to join McCain, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Pawlenty said, "As our country pursues the war on terror, we need a seasoned leader with international affairs and national security experience. ... I'm honored and excited to help Sen. McCain's efforts to become our next president." Minnesota Public Radio reports that the "prominent position with the McCain camp revived speculation that Pawlenty is a possible vice-presidential contender," although Pawlenty is promising to serve out his term as governor, which would theoretically preclude a spot on a 2008 ticket.

However, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Pawlenty's decision yesterday to help McCain "comes as the two Republicans have diverged in recent days on a key issue: sending more troops to Iraq." McCain supports sending more troops, while Pawlenty "says it's unfair that Minnesota soldiers will have their tours extended as part of the strategy."

Obama To Make Announcement "Very Soon"

The Chicago Tribune reports today that Sen. Barack Obama (D) "inched closer" to announcing his decision on a 2008 bid, "adding a 'very' to the 'soon' in his assessment about when an announcement will come." After "delivering an emotional keynote speech to celebrate Martin Luther King's birth," Obama said, "We will have an announcement very soon." The AP reports introducing Obama yesterday, Jesse Jackson "told a crowd at the annual King scholarship breakfast, 'it's a long, nonstop line between the march in Selma in 1965 and the inauguration in Washington in 2009.'" In his syndicated column over the weekend, Robert Novak wrote that Obama "informed a major Democratic financial contributor" that he "probably" will announce the creation of a presidential exploratory committee some time this week, although he expects to hold off on formally announcing his candidacy for some time.

Kerry Top '08 Contributor To '06 Candidates

The Capitol Hill publication Roll Call reports this morning that Sen. John Kerry (D) "cinched the title of most generous potential 2008 White House candidate," with Federal Election Commission reports showing his political action committee gave "more than $4.3 million" to Democratic candidates during the 2006 election cycle. On the GOP side, Sen. John McCain's PAC gave out more than $1.3 million.

Clinton Benefits From Husband's Early Primary Allies

The AP reports former President Bill Clinton "still has plenty of friends in New Hampshire and Iowa," who now count themselves as "Friends of Hill" as well as "Friends of Bill," potentially giving Sen. Hillary Clinton a leg up in these early nominating contests. The AP adds that while "nostalgia and personal ties may play to Sen. Clinton's advantage, Democrats stress that it's the quality of the candidate herself that's earned their support." For example, Nancy Richards-Stower, "a New Hampshire attorney, said she'll work just as hard for Sen. Clinton as she did for Clinton's husband."

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "President Bush says that his new plan ensures that every Iraqi citizen gets a piece of the oil business. As opposed to here, where the oil business gets a piece of every US citizen."

Jay Leno: "Did you hear about this? Saddam Hussein's half-brother and former head of Iraq's Revolutionary Court were hanged this morning before dawn. They were hanged. Well, sources said it took an extra two weeks after Saddam's execution, because they had to work out the deal with YouTube."

Jay Leno: "Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd, a Democrat, has announced he is running for president. Oh, there you go. There you go. Well, Dodd said over the past few weeks he's been having a conversation with the mirror about running. The bad news? Today, the guy in the mirror came out in favor of Barack Obama."

David Letterman: "By the way, while you folks were laughing at that last joke, President Bush admitted to five more mistakes."

David Letterman: "Did you see President Bush last night on '60 Minutes'? Bush said we are in an ideological struggle with evildoers. Ideological struggle with evildoers. I think he is talking about the Democrats."

David Letterman: "Bush admitted to making mistakes in Iraq and said that he has learned from these mistakes and will do better in Iran. So -- I don't know."

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