Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Media Sorts Out Johnson Ramifications

Sen. Tim Johnson remains in critical condition today after undergoing brain surgery yesterday. The AP reports the operating physician, John Eisold, said "the senator is recovering without complication" and is "responsive." Johnson is suffering from a condition called Arteriovenous Malformation, or AVM. The Washington Post reports "the experience of other people who have suffered bleeding from arteriovenous malformations inside the brain suggests that...Johnson...has at least a 50-50 chance of full recovery. ... 10 to 15 percent of patients die within hours, 35 percent suffer permanent disability and about 50 percent recover more or less completely." The Wall Street Journal, in a story titled "Senator's Chances Are Mixed For Recovery From Rare Disorder," says that "if he regains function quickly after surgery, recovery might take only a month or so. If he doesn't bounce back quickly, prospects for recovery are more variable and uncertain, but can take six months to a year." USA Today notes "patients with Johnson's condition frequently require a second operation to remove the problem blood vessels," and such operations "can pose a very high risk." On the other hand, the Los Angeles Times reports that "because the senator made it through the operation without incident, his odds of survival are high, experts said."

Political Consequences. The CBS Evening News said last night "it's too early for a long-term prognosis," but ABC World News noted "the political prognosis has Washington preoccupied," as a vacancy in Johnson's South Dakota seat would return Senate control to Republicans. As another AP dispatch put it, "Suddenly, the Democrats' grip on the Senate looks very tenuous indeed." The Wall Street Journal notes that "if Mr. Johnson is recovering but still hospitalized when the new Congress convenes in January, Democrats would retain a 50-49 majority and be able to organize under Mr. Reid." But "dates here mean less since, unlike the House, Senate rules permit that body to reorganize at a later date in the new Congress if the balance of power changes." On its website, meanwhile, Time ponders the possibility of Republicans filibustering the organizing resolution in January. That scenario, says Time, presents a "truly extraordinary possibility: a chamber with a new Democratic leader, but the existing set of Republican committee chairmen. That is because, until an organizing resolution is passed, incoming Majority Leader Harry Reid would have no control over the committees."

Meanwhile, a number of stories suggest even a long-term incapacitation may not lead to Johnson's departure from the Senate. The Chicago Tribune reports, "As long as a senator is alive, there is no way to legally remove him or her from office for health reasons, experts said." And the Los Angeles Times, in a story titled "Senate Is Loath To Remove Disabled Members," says that is "an enduring tradition in one of the world's most exclusive clubs: Never has the Senate forced its members out of office because they have become physically or mentally incapable of serving." That "hands-off protocol could be a big boon to Democrats." Moreover, said ABC World News Republicans "really are signaling that they're going to give" Johnson "all the time he needs to recover. They're not going to make a political issue, even if he's gone from the chamber for a long period of time. As one aide told me, 'He's family.'" And NBC Nightly News interviewed a political scientist, Sarah Binder, who said Johnson "can keep his seat even if he becomes incapacitated." Sarah Binder: "South Dakota law, when it defines vacancy mentions vacancy caused by death, resignation, expulsion. It does not make any reference to incapacitated Senators."

Politicians on both parties of the aisle yesterday refused to speculate on that issue. The New York Times reports "even some Republican lawmakers and aides criticized news coverage of Mr. Johnson's illness as ghoulish, saying it put too much emphasis on who would control the Senate and not enough on his health." Sen. Trent Lott "brushed off questions about procedures if the membership split 50-50," and Sen. Mitch McConnell "issued a statement titled 'The recovery of Senator Tim Johnson' -- emphasis on recovery." Meanwhile, the Argus Leader reports "incoming Sen. Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., maintained a hopeful demeanor even as speculation was at its darkest Thursday morning before news that Johnson was regaining consciousness was widely distributed. Reid said he had visited Johnson in the hospital before and after surgery. '"To me, he looked good,' Reid said in a press conference and predicted a full recovery for Johnson." USA Today reports Reid also "said he is continuing to organize for a Senate run by his party. 'There isn't a thing that has changed,' said Reid." The Washington Post, Washington Times , McClatchy, Bloomberg and CQ run similar stories noting the level of bipartisan concern about Johnson's health this morning. In addition, by the AP, New York Times and USA Today feature profiles of the South Dakota senator, in which he is described as an unassuming and independent lawmaker. The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, meanwhile, run detailed features on AVM.

Boost In Iraq Troop Levels In The Offing

As President Bush continues to ponder a shift in his Iraq strategy, several press accounts suggest he is leaning toward boosting US troop levels in and around Baghdad. McClatchy says Bush's strategy will include "a possible short-term surge of as many as 40,000 more American troops to try to secure Baghdad," and the Wall Street Journal reports Bush is "leaning toward temporarily sending as many as 20,000 additional US troops to Iraq." Sen. John McCain, visiting Baghdad, said US commanders are discussing adding as many as 35,000 troops. The New York Times and AP run stories on McCain's comments.

Ex-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, on CNN's The Situation Room, sounded less than enthusiastic about the effect of boosting troop levels: "There's no sense adding more troops to the existing strategy. ... I think it is a mistake to tie, in our thinking, the outcome in Iraq to the troop levels. The outcome in Iraq will have to depend on the degree to which we can create incentives for a political negotiation between the parties and political incentives to the outside countries to let the country develop with responsible stability." Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Fox News that "there hasn't been a minute in the last six years when we have not had the number of troops that the combatant commanders have requested."

Other stories deal with different parts of Bush's strategy: USA Today and the Los Angeles Times focus on US attempts to craft a new governing coalition in Iraq one that excludes radical Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr. The Washington Post and the Christian Science Monitor say the Administration appears set the reject Baker panel's recommendation to hold talks with Iran and Syria on the Iraq situation. In fact, the White House, for a second day, criticized Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson for meeting with Syrian president Bashar Assad. McClatchy says "the White House...escalated its criticism" of Nelson. The AP, AFP and New York Times run similar reports.

White House Split White House insiders tell the US News Political Bulletin that there are more divisions within the administration than Bush's spokesmen have admitted, and that factionalism has led to the postponement of Bush's decisions and speech on Iraq. Bush earlier this week said he won't be "rushed" into changing course on Iraq and he still will demand victory. "It goes back to how complicated the situation is," says a senior GOP strategist. "There are different factions in the administration." Among them, Vice President Dick Cheney wants to hew as closely as possible to the original goal of victory by creating a government in Baghdad that can, as Bush says, "sustain, govern, and defend itself." Cheney is believed to be leaning toward sending a "surge" of additional U.S. troops to Iraq, perhaps 30,000, to put down sectarian violence. Military leaders, however, are against such a move because they think it will increase the Iraqis' dependency on the United States. Also fueling the White House delay in coming up with a new plan for Iraq is a belief that the Democrats are disinclined to exert much real pressure on Bush until they pass some domestic legislation, such as raising the minimum wage, which they promised to do in the mid-term campaigns. "The Democrats can't and won't do a whole lot on Iraq right now," says a GOP insider, so administration officials believe they have some breathing room.

In the context of the Administration's deliberations, the Financial Times reports Secretary of State Rice "has been notable only for her low visibility" on Iraq, and "many are asking whether she will take the risk and seize the opportunity to direct a comprehensive change of course in the region in the two years they have left." Rice "appears to be on the brink of ignoring the first of the 79 recommendations of the Iraq Study Group." And there's more criticism from conservatives, this morning, of the Iraq Study Group. In an editorial, the Wall Street Journal notes criticism about the report coming from Iraq officials, and columnist Charles Krauthammer writes in the Washington Post that "the long-anticipated report turned out to be, as is widely agreed, a farce." The report "has fallen so flat that the field is now clear for the president to recommend to a war-weary country something new and bold."

Meanwhile, an interesting story in today's Washington Post deals with how the President is dealing with his low poll ratings. The Post reports Harry S. Truman "seems to hold a special fascination for...Bush these days," a fact that offers "a glimpse into the psychology of a president who, like Truman in his second term, seems beset by trouble and pressures on all sides and who is ready to look to history for some comfort and guidance." On the subject of opposition to Bush, this morning's Washington Post also features an unusual criticism of his conduct of the war. In his column, E.J. Dionne suggests the President's insistence on tax cuts has undermined US chances to achieve success in Iraq.

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Pelosi Shackles GOP In New House

The Democratic leadership is preparing for quick action on its legislative agenda in January at the beginning of the 110th Congress. The Dow Jones Newswires report that incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi said House Republicans will "be given only one chance to amend or debate a plan to curb oil and gas subsidies and other Democratic priorities." Legislation "cutting subsidies to oil and gas producers is one of Democrats' top six priorities for their first 100 hours in power. Pelosi said Thursday that the oil and gas legislation along with bills cutting student loan interest rates and requiring the government to negotiate prescription drug prices for Medicare would not go through the normal legislative process."

Democrats Consider Outside Ethics Body

With ethics reform still a hot issue, incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Republican leader John Boehner have agreed to appoint a bipartisan task force to examine the creation of an independent enforcement panel. The AP reports Pelosi "offered no details on what the outside ethics group might look like, saying that would be up to the task force." The establishment of "a permanent outside enforcement entity has been a priority of ethics reformers, but such proposals have failed to become law in the past." The Christian Science Monitor this morning runs an analysis piece on the Democrats' broader reform agenda.

Pelosi Calls For New Intel Oversight Panel.

USA Today reports incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called "for creation of a congressional panel that would oversee the administration's intelligence budget." Pelosi "said the proposed intelligence oversight panel would be made up of lawmakers from the Appropriations Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence, and would work within the Appropriations Committee." The New York Times, AP, Washington Times and Washington Post, among other sources, also report on Pelosi's move.

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Obama To Make Announcement In January

The Chicago Tribune reports this morning that on the "cusp of a historic decision over whether to run for the White House," Sen. Barack Obama (D) "said Thursday that he believed he would be a 'viable candidate' for president who could move the nation beyond the generational politics that have defined the last 40 years." In a meeting with the Tribune editorial board, Obama said, "I wouldn't run if I didn't think I could win." Obama said that he "would reveal his decision in January, following a two-week family vacation that returns him to his roots in Hawaii, setting an extraordinary arc for a politician who a little more than two years ago was a state senator toiling in Springfield."

Clinton Invited To Headline NH Event

In the wake of Sen. Barack Obama's (D) successful trip to the Granite state, the AP reports that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) has been invited by New Hampshire Democrats "to be the featured speaker at a major fundraiser early next year and the potential presidential candidate is considering the invite. The trip would be Clinton's first to the early presidential primary state in more than 10 years. ... The New Hampshire fundraiser -- known as the '100 Club' fundraiser -- is usually held in February or early March." The New Hampshire Union Leader adds that state Democratic Party Executive Director Nick Clemons "said Clinton has not officially accepted. But he said, 'They are definitely interested and they are just trying to see when they can make it happen.'" The New York Daily News reports that Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said, "Sen. Clinton is grateful for the invitation. ... If she takes the next step, she would, of course, be spending considerable time in New Hampshire and would be honored to speak at the 100 Club."

Pataki Says He's Yet To Decide On '08 Bid

NY1.com reports that New York Gov. George Pataki (R), during an interview with NY1 on Thursday, "talked about rumors of an impending run for the White House. 'Well I haven't, honestly, come to a decision. I'm sure others know exactly what I am going to do but I'd encourage them to let me know when they find out.'"

Pair Of GOP Senators Look Likely To Seek Reelection

News reports out today indicate that two GOP Senators who had been retirement possibilities, Virginia's John Warner and Tennessee's Lamar Alexander, appear likely to run for reelection. The Nashville City Paper reports today that after Alexander told incoming Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that he was considering retiring, McConnell asked what he could do to get him to run again. The answer appoint him to the "powerful" Appropriations and Environment committees for the next Congress. Alexander told the City Paper, "I got everything I asked for." The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that Warner "all but announced yesterday he will seek re-election in 2008. It would be his sixth term. Given the 'forceful impact' of November's election on Virginia, the Republican wrote in a letter made public by his office, 'I am now strongly considering running for reelection to the Senate in 2008.'"

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "Christmas shopping got a lot easier for President Bush this year. We have fewer and fewer allies each year to shop for. It makes it easy -- just that one little gift for England, then we're out."

Jay Leno: "Kerry is on his way to Iraq. He's going to meet with the troops. Well, that's bound to boost morale, huh?"

David Letterman: "President Bush refuses now to rush any decision on Iraq. He said he's going to be listening to advice, he's going to weigh his alternatives, considering his options. He must be drinking again."

Conan O'Brien: "Awkward moment in Washington yesterday. The new head of the House Intelligence Committee had an embarrassing moment yesterday, when he admitted he didn't know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite. President Bush said, 'Don't feel bad. I still have trouble with Iran and Iraq.'"

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