Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Bush Planning "Something Big" On Iraq

The White House announced yesterday that President Bush's speech announcing his new policies for Iraq won't be given until January. The reason? CNN's The Situation Room mentioned "senior administration officials" who suggested Bush wants more time because he "is planning to do something big" namely, he is "very seriously considering agreeing with John McCain and increasing troop levels." In fact, the Los Angeles Times reports on its front page that "strong support has coalesced in the Pentagon behind a military plan to 'double down' in the country with a substantial buildup in...troops, an increase in industrial aid and a major combat offensive against Muqtada Sadr, the radical Shiite leader impeding development of the Iraqi government." The Times also notes that strategy would overlap "somewhat a course promoted by" McCain. And the Washington Times says "top military officials with whom Mr. Bush met yesterday backed Mr. McCain's stance."

Other interesting developments catalogued in this morning's newspapers could have an effect on Bush's eventual decision: A New York Times piece says Saudi Arabia has warned the US that, in the event of a US pullout, they may back the Sunnis in any fighting against the Shiites. Another New York Times story reports on a plan presented to US officials by the Iraqi army. The plan calls for Iraqi troops to take over Baghdad security by early 2007. A spokesman for the National Security Council, Gordon Johndroe, "said Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior American military commander in Iraq, was assessing the plan." On the other hand, the Boston Globe runs excerpts from the diary of a US officer in Iraq, Army Captain Phillip Carter. The entries cast serious doubt on the feasibility of Iraqi security forces being ready to take over from their US counterparts any time soon.

While Bush ponders his options, media organizations are doing their best to remind him of his low levels of public support. ABC World News reported on its new poll, which "shows real intensity of opposition" to Bush's leadership: 70% disapprove of...the President's "handling the war in Iraq," while "57% strongly disapprove." The Washington Post says that according to the same poll, "Nearly eight in 10 Americans favor changing the US mission in Iraq from direct combat to training Iraqi troops, the Washington Post-ABC News survey found. ... Overall, 52 percent now say, the United States is losing the war, up from 34 percent last year." The Los Angeles Times comments on its own Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, which found "just 12 percent would support a plan to increase troop strength, an option under serious consideration by the military." In addition, USA Today says this morning that "in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, a 54% majority says Bush will be judged as a below-average or poor president, more than double the negative rating given any of his five most recent predecessors. ... Just 19% expect him to be seen as outstanding or above average."

Bush Criticized For Delay Until yesterday, the expectation had been that Bush would address the nation before Christmas to outline his new Iraq strategy. The delay came under fire in the media and from Democrats. The Washington Post ¸ AP and Los Angeles Times, among other newspapers, run the White House's benign explanation namely that Bush is taking the extra time to carefully consider all options. But a New York Times piece says the delay is due to divisions among Bush's advisers, while CNN's The Situation Room called it "a reversal that adds to the picture of a beleaguered White House groping for answers." In an editorial, the New York Times suggests politics are part of the reasons for the new timetable: "We fear that...[Bush's] political handlers are waiting for public enthusiasm for the Baker report to flag before Mr. Bush tries to explain why he won't follow through on some of the report's most important and reasonable suggestions."

Sen. Harry Reid, the Democratic leader, was also incensed at the delay. NBC Nightly News reports Reid said in a statement, "Talking to the same people he should have talked to four years ago does not relieve the President of the need to demonstrate leadership and change his policy now. The ball remains in his court and time is running out." CNN correspondent Jack Cafferty, in his "Cafferty File" segment on CNN's The Situation Room, said: "Bush apparently is in no hurry now to come up with a change of strategy in Iraq. Hey, what is the rush? Things are going so well over there, right?" And the Christian Science Monitor argues caustically that "there is a theatrical quality to at least some of" Bush's meetings on Iraq, as "presumably, Bush already knows well the attitudes of the officials of his own administration."

The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, says Bush has a "new political headache: high-profile dissent from the center of his own party." In "ways unimaginable just a few months ago, the report from the bipartisan panel...is giving moderate Republicans political cover to condemn the handling of the war -- creating a dilemma for the president and war supporters such as Sen. John McCain."

Cheney Lying Low Following ISG Report

What's become of Dick Cheney? Washington insiders are buzzing over the fact that the Vice President has been publicly silent and mostly out of sight since the Iraq Study Group issued its long-awaited report last week. White House insiders tell the US News Political Bulletin Cheney is playing an inside game, advising President Bush privately not to change course too much in Iraq, not to withdraw US troops any time soon, and not to talk directly with the hard-line regimes in Iran and Syria about the situation. Cheney, an architect of current policy, is waiting for Bush to decide what to do next before he speaks out. At that point, insiders say, he will go public to sell the President's decision around the country, especially in speeches to conservative audiences who still have a high regard for Cheney, even though his popularity with the public is very low. A former associate who worked closely with Cheney for years says there may be another reason. "I think we'll see less of him than ever," says the associate. "Iraq is now Bush's baby, and Cheney doesn't want to be tarred with it in the eyes of historians." Meanwhile, as Bush meets this week with State Department advisers, outside experts, Pentagon officials, and others about the war to come up with a "new way forward," Cheney has been at his side, taking extensive notes but mostly staying mum, at least at the meetings.

ISG Report Has Few Defenders The more analysts have a chance to consider the Baker report, the less popular it is, judging by major newspaper opinion pages this morning. In the Washington Post, Ret. General Barry R. McCaffrey says, "We need a new political and military approach to head off this impending disaster -- one crafted with bipartisan congressional support. But Baker-Hamilton isn't it." Columns critical of the report also appear in the Washington Times and Los Angeles Times, where conservative Max Boot calls it "an anticlimactic combination of banalities and stay-the-course recommendations leavened with generous dollops of wishful thinking." The report also comes under fire from the left: Richard Cohen, in the Washington Post, says Jim Baker, "the renowned foreign policy realist, looked realism in the eye -- and blinked. The Iraq report...shied from the most realistic one of all: Get the hell out as soon as possible."

It may well be that, as former White House aide Nicolle Wallace said last night on the CBS Evening News, the Study Group and its findings have "no natural constituency, other than the very esteemed and respected members that were on it."

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Democrats Explore Independent Watchdog

House Democrats, riding a wave of popular disapproval of congressional scandals that helped sweep Republicans from the majority, are seriously considering the creation of an outside ethics enforcement institution. The New York Times reports a "senior party official" says incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi "had consulted with" Minority Leader John Boehner "on forming a bipartisan group to examine outside enforcement."

Democrats Keep Jefferson Off Key Panel The AP reports House Democrats, "insistent that they will hold lawmakers to higher standards, decided Tuesday that Rep. William Jefferson will not return to an influential committee [Ways and Means] until a federal corruption investigation involving him is completed."

Ethics Committee Clears Reid The AP reports the Senate ethics committee concluded that incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "did not break Senate rules in accepting free ringside seats at boxing matches from the Nevada Athletic Commission."

Two Indicted For Secretly Hiring Abramoff

The Los Angeles Times reports, "A grand jury in Guam on Tuesday indicted a California attorney and a former Guam court official on charges they conspired to circumvent the island territory's procurement laws in the secret hiring of then-Washington, D.C., lobbyist Jack Abramoff." Those indicted were "Howard L. Hills of Laguna Beach and Anthony P. Sanchez, the former administrator of the Guam Superior Court."

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Nation Open To Minority President

An Opinion Research/CNN poll of conducted earlier this month has "good news" for Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The poll "indicates that Americans may be ready for a black or a female president. However a large section of Americans, according to the poll, are skeptical that the nation is ready to break its string of 43 white, male heads of state." 62 percent of respondents said the US was ready for a black president and 60 percent said the US was ready for a female president. CNN added, "Whites were more likely than blacks, according to the poll, to believe that the U.S. is ready for a black president. Nearly two thirds, 65 percent, of whites believe that the nation was ready for a black president. However, a large portion of each race -- 42 percent of African-Americans and 31 percent of whites -- believe the country is not ready for an African-American president."

Obama Says He Could Balance Senate, Pres Bid

The AP reports that "while the nation waits for" Sen. Barack Obama to decide on a presidential bid, he said yesterday that he could balance his duties to Illinois as a Senator and a presidential campaign run by relying more heavily on his staff. Obama said, "I believe we can still carry out those functions should I choose to serve, but it's something that we pay a lot of attention about because my current job is to deal with the people of Illinois."

Obama Said To Have More To Do In New Hampshire The AP reports that although Obama "had a good first date in New Hampshire this week," Democrats in the Granite State say he "still has got some courting to do." Obama will "have to get in line with the rest of the Democrats vying for their attention. Voters in the nation's first presidential primary state are a demanding lot. And while party activists were clearly excited about Obama's speeches in his first visit to New Hampshire Sunday, they made it clear he'll have to keep coming back for more intimate chats if he wants their support." Granite State Gov. John Lynch said, "New Hampshire people...expect candidates to come to the living rooms and the kitchens, meet with them in small groups and have discussions on the issues." Ray Buckley, vice chairman of the state's Democratic Party, adds that Obama will also have to lay out more policy positions in future visits.

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Richardson, Biden Heading To New Hampshire This Weekend

The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that, undeterred by Barack Obama's success in the Granite State this weekend, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden (D) will both be make swings through New Hampshire this weekend.

DeLay Predicts Clinton Win

In a meeting with conservatives this week, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said that he expects Sen. Hillary Clinton to win the 2008 presidential race, the conservative publication Human Events reports. DeLay said he expects Clinton to win the nomination and select Sen. Barack Obama as his running mate. Human Events adds that DeLay said it is the "liberal coalition" of MoveOn.org, the Media Fund, and America Coming Together, "working in concert with the news media, that will propel Clinton to the White House in 2008."

Brownback Would Back Giuliani Despite Differences

Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (R), in an interview about his prospects running for president in 2008 on CNN's The Situation Room, was asked whether he could support Rudy Giuliani if he were nominated by the GOP for President. Brownback replied, "I think so. I believe in a big tent party. I believe in a party that binds people together, even though we don't agree on all of the topics, so I think I could do that, but I think I'm going to be the nominee and not Rudy Giuliani." Asked whether Brownback was concerned with Giuliani's stance on social issues, Brownback said, "Well, I disagree with him on those issues and I think that's why I'll have more fortune in contacting the voters than I think Mr. Giuliani will. But he is a quality American. He's led a large city in the United States. He's been very strong on crime. But that having been said, this is about a competition of ideas and I like the ideas that I represent and I think those are winning ideas."

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Rodriguez Defeats Bonilla In TX23 Runoff

USA Today reports this morning that Ciro Rodriguez (D) easily defeated TX23 Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) in a runoff election yesterday, beating him 56%-44%. The district "was reshaped in June by judges who said a 2003 reconfiguration of the district was unconstitutional because it diluted minority votes." The New York Times adds that Rodriguez's "victory increases the Democrats' commanding House majority, giving them 233 seats to the Republicans' 202, including independents who align with the Democratic caucus, according to a New York Times analysis of the voting results. Republicans had a 232 to 203 majority in the outgoing Congress."

Easley Won't Challenge Dole

The Winston-Salem Journal reports that North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley (D) told them in an interview that he has no plans to run against Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). Easley added, "I think I would find the legislative process frustrating. I mean, it's frustrating enough when you're chief executive. I just don't think the Senate would be my highest and best use."

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LAST LAUGHS

Late Night Political Humor.

Jay Leno: "Now that his potential presidential campaign is gaining strength, people are getting more and more interested in the origin of Illinois Senator Barack Obama's name. Fascinating man. Turns out Barack Obama is an old Kenyan name which translates to 'Hillary's worst nightmare.'"

David Letterman: "Dennis Kucinich has announced he's running for president in 2008 from Ohio. In a related story, somewhere a tree fell in the forest."

Conan O'Brien: "I don't know if you remember him. Dennis Kucinich, who ran for president in '04, announced he's running against in '08. Coincidentally, '04 is the number of votes Kucinich received."

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