USNews.com: Political Bulletin: Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

CAMPAIGN NEWS

Obama's Media Star Keeps Rising

Sen. Barack Obama's (D) trip to New Hampshire over the weekend continued to reverberate on Monday, with each of the major networks running full segments on the significance of the Illinois Senator's possible bid for the Democratic nomination in 2008. The phenomenon labeled by some commentators as "Obama-mania" also drew coverage in a variety of cable and print sources, and comparisons with another photogenic Democratic Senator and later President, John F. Kennedy. For example, NBC Nightly News reported Obama "is officially testing the water, as they say, and in doing so, he packed the house this weekend with citizens, with news media and the next thing we knew, one New Hampshire legislator said he hasn't seen anything like what happened there this weekend since John F. Kennedy." The CBS Evening News reported, "Maybe the Democrats are just looking for a fresh face. Only two years ago, Obama was an Illinois state senator who had just won his first term in the US Senate. He's short on national security credentials, although some Democrats like that fact that he was against the war in Iraq early on. His newest message: The politics of inclusion." But "maybe most of all, Obama is not Hillary Clinton, whom some Democrats worry is just too much of a lightning rod to win the election."

Republicans Fret Over Possible Clinton-Obama Team The possibility that a potential Democratic presidential primary matchup between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama could lead to a Clinton-Obama ticket is raising concerns in GOP circles that it might be unbeatable, the US News Political Bulletin Reports. While Democratic strategists are more skeptical of the success of a ticket composed of two minorities, some Republicans advisors to the White House and leading 2008 hopefuls Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani see the ticket as an easy winner built on the enthusiasm it would generate in Democratic circles. Their theory is that Clinton would stand a good chance to pick up the states that Sen. John Kerry won in 2004. While not enough to win the election on her own, the addition of Obama would help push closely divided states like Ohio over into the Democratic column, thereby giving the Clinton-Obama ticket the White House.

Clinton Plans January Announcement

The AP reports Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said yesterday "she won't make a decision about running for president until after the first of the year." During a visit "to an aircraft maintenance facility at the former Griffiss Air Base, Clinton confirmed she is talking to people in New York and across the country about a possible run for president in 2008." Clinton said, "I'm talking to people who have opinions about what our country needs to do going forward and whether or not I make any decisions, I can't really confront until after the first of the year."

Clinton To Host Dinner Today For Iowa Democrats. The New York Times reports that Sen. Clinton "is holding a small dinner party Tuesday for Iowans. Most attendees were to have flown to Washington from Iowa -- airfare not included. At least three had conflicts, but former Iowans living in Washington were planning to attend." Clinton aides "asked attendees not to discuss the dinner, just as with another one on Sunday with guests from New Hampshire."

Kucinich To Announce '08 Bid Today

Fox News Special Report reported last night that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) is expected to announce a second consecutive presidential bid in Cleveland today. The AP reports that the "liberal, anti-war congressman" said "he was inspired to run because he disagrees with the way some of his fellow Democrats are handling the war, including approval of a proposal to spend $160 billion more on the conflict." The Hill notes that in 2004, Kucinich "garnered 1 to 2 percent in most early states in 2004, going on to take 16 percent in Maine, 17 percent in Minnesota and 26 percent in Hawaii and Alaska."

Bayh Talks Up His Grassroots Effort In New Hampshire

While campaigning in New Hampshire this weekend but overshadowed by Sunday's appearance of Sen. Barack Obama in Manchester, the US News Political Bulletin reports likely Democratic presidential contender Evan Bayh argued that the staffers he hired to work on behalf of Granite State Democrats in last month's election would give him a leg up in the state's 2008 primary. The Indiana Senator funded 15 staffers to work in New Hampshire for the 2006 midterm cycle, when Democrats won control of the state House and Senate, as part of his national "Camp Bayh" program. Democratic activists in the state say no other Democratic presidential contender had such an on-the-ground presence in the election. "It's not all about celebrity status and who has the most money, but about who actually does the legwork, who gets to know people on an individual basis, and who has the trust of supporters and communities," Bayh told US News Political Bulletin yesterday. "A candidate who didn't do that kind of grassroots work would really be running a risk in places like New Hampshire and Iowa."

Gingrich Decision On 2008 To Come In September

On Fox News' Your World last night, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) said he is not going to immediately enter the presidential race, saying, "I'll tell you in September what I decide to do but, for the moment, we're looking for American solutions that we're going to work with members of both parties to try to actually solve problems for the coming year." After Neil Cavuto pressed him for more information, Gingrich responded, "John F. Kennedy announced on January 30, in the election year. Ronald Reagan announced in late November of 1975. We are a long, long way from serious, normal people being involved in politics." That statement aside, Gingrich does not plan to be idle in the meantime. The AP reports that he will make his second visit to New Hampshire in recent weeks, where he will speak at the annual Manchester Republican City Committee dinner Thursday.

Bush Pollster Not Joining 2008 Race

The Austin American-Statesman reports that longtime Bush adviser Matthew Dowd "says he's made up his mind whose team he will be on in the 2008 presidential campaign. Nobody's." Asked whether he would be working for any 2008 presidential candidates, Dowd replied, "Staying out of it." Dowd has "made good on a vow to move back to Austin, where he a founding partner of ViaNovo, a communications consulting firm that also has offices in DC, Dallas and Monterrey, Mexico."

Shaheen Looks At Rematch With Sununu

The Concord (NH) Monitor reports today that former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is considering a bid against Sen. John Sununu (R), potentially setting up a rematch of the 2004 contest, which she lost by a bit more than 4%.

GOP Debates Effectiveness Of Negative Ads

There's a budding debate inside the GOP political, polling and strategy community over the effectiveness of negative advertising, the US News Political Bulletin reports, with many professionals calling for a major change in the way the party promotes and advertises itself and candidates. Insiders describe a battle between consultants calling for a more positive message and those who manned the midterm elections claiming that the losses were a fluke. The battle is expected to be aired at this week's House Republican meeting in Charlottesville. Some party advisors speaking on background claim that the losses were due to harshly negative advertising, an unwillingness by leaders to urge candidates to address national issues and old-school tactics. "I'm sorry to say this, but the Democrats have a better message and better targeting and better tactics. We had the edge but lost it," a key GOP consultant told US News Political Bulletin. "So we relied on what we always do and that's negative advertising. It turned voters off," said the consultant who was not aligned with any of the major campaigns in 2006. Those who were part of the losing campaigns, however, said that many races were close and could have gone Republican, making 2006 an aberration for the GOP. What's unclear is how the GOP leadership in the House and Senate view the results, though one strategist close to leaders in both chambers say that they, too, believe that the Republicans need a new and more positive message.

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WASHINGTON NEWS

Bush "Listening" As War Support Plummets

President Bush on Monday traveled to Foggy Bottom in Washington to consult State Department officials and diplomats on US policy alternatives for Iraq, and later met with a panel of scholars and retired military brass to hear their take on the war. An interesting Washington Post piece, headlined, "Experts Advise Bush Not To Reduce Troops," reports Bush heard "a blunt and dismal assessment of his handling of Iraq" from the group of military experts yesterday, "but the advisers shared the White House's skeptical view of the recommendations made last week by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, sources said." In his remarks yesterday, Bush indicated the US goal in Iraq remained "success," notes the Los Angeles Times even as CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight focused on the fact that Bush "did not use the word victory, a word he has used frequently in the past."

The White House seemed to be at pains to show Bush "listening," open to other points of view on Iraq in advance of a major address to the American people on his decision on the course to follow. A big part of the White House's political problem, GOP strategists tell US News Political Bulletin, is that many voters don't believe that Bush is open to fresh thinking or that he is capable of adjusting to deteriorating conditions in Iraq. "It's very important for people to understand that the President is someone who is always realistic about the war," says White House Press Secretary Tony Snow. Snow points out that Bush often meets with the families of fallen soldiers, is briefed on the war each day, and closely follows developments throughout the Middle East. "He's not remote from it," Snow tells US News Political Bulletin. Snow adds that Bush probably knows more about the situation in Iraq than anybody in Washington. "Contrary to the stereotype, this is a guy who does listen," Snow says.

But NBC Nightly News reported the White House's "message" yesterday "seemed to be, 'Don't expect much of a change,'" and a similar piece in today's Newsday reports that Bush's "early comments suggest he is in no mood for the sweeping changes sought by the study group." Moreover, the media presented Bush's meetings as a White House PR effort to help him regain his footing on the Iraq issue after the release of the Iraq Study Group's report. The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today and Bloomberg ¸ among other media outlets, this morning run similar reports on Bush's meetings.

The meetings coincide with the release of new polls that show public support for his Iraq policy at record lows. The CBS Evening News led its broadcasts with a new CBS poll, in which "a record 71% said the war is going badly. More than half say it's unlikely the United States will win." An "all-time high of 75% now disapprove of the President's handling of Iraq." Commenting on the poll, Bob Schiefer said, "If you were George Bush, I have to say it just does not get any worse than this." And USA Today reports on a Gallup poll that finds a "record high 62% of Americans say the war in Iraq isn't 'worth it,' and a record low 16% say the United States is winning."

Democrats Plan No Earmarks

In an effort to quickly pass legislation to fund the Federal Government for the fiscal 2007 budget year, which began in September, congressional Democrats plan to pass a "streamlined" appropriations measure that excludes members' projects or earmarks. The Wall Street Journal reports Democrats, "fearing a political trap...want to avoid becoming bogged down and sacrificing their own agenda by devoting weeks to passing an omnibus measure combining the unfinished bills. The path outlined now offers a speedier alternative, but never in modern memory has it been attempted on such a large scale." The announcement "was made last night by the incoming chairmen of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees," Rep. David Obey and Sen. Robert Byrd, " who also said they would impose a moratorium on new congressional earmarks, targeted appropriations for special projects in members' home districts." The Hill, Washington Post and New York Times run similar stories.

Regard For Lawmakers Way Down USA Today reports only "15% of 1,009 adults in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday gave US senators high or very high marks for honesty and ethical standards. Only 14% did so for U.S. representatives." Members of both houses "are down from 25% in 2001, when members of Congress got their best score since the survey began in 1976."

DeLay Launches New Venture As Blogger.

USA Today reports former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay is "re-entering the political fray, this time as an Internet commentator and community organizer." DeLay, whose "outspoken conservatism and take-no-prisoners legislative style made him a favorite target of Democrats before he resigned from the House in June, launched himself in the blogosphere Monday. He said he hopes to use his new website, www.tomdelay.com, to create a grassroots political organization for conservatives." The Hill says that "sitting forward in an attitude of calm determination, in a conference room adorned with mementos and pictures from his tenure in Congress, DeLay explained how his blog was aimed at improving Internet communication between conservatives. And he acknowledged that Democrats were well ahead in this area."

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "The Christmas tree at the White House fell over. Yeah. Actually, it didn't fall over. What happened was President Bush was standing next to it when a photographer walked in. I guess the tree was trying to distance itself from President Bush."

Jay Leno: "President Bush has received a copy of the 96-page Iraqi Study Group report. When they gave it to him, President Bush said, 'Don't tell me how it ends.' And then they said, 'Uh, it doesn't.'"

David Letterman: "And how about the new Iraq Study Group? They have released their 142-page report. And President Bush has not commented on it. He said, 'I'm not going to comment on this until I've completely ignored it.'"

Conan O'Brien: "I can't believe it, but the 2008 presidential race is already underway. ... Over the weekend, Senator Barack Obama visited New Hampshire. And thousands of people turned up to hear him speak. That's right, yeah. Yeah -- the New Hampshire crowds were excited, because apparently this is the first time they've ever seen an African-American."

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