Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Bush Snubbed In Last Day Of Campaigning.

President Bush campaigned in Florida yesterday on behalf of GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist only Crist didn't show up at the event. Instead, said Fox News' Special Report, Crist campaigned elsewhere in the state with Sen. John McCain. The AP calls the "snub" "one more reminder" of Bush's "poor standing in the polls." As the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports this morning, the "evident snub" focused much of the national media coverage of the President's campaign swing. All three networks noted it, with the CBS Evening News reporting Florida "neatly sums up the President's status," ABC World News noting "it was Crist who invited the President to Florida," and NBC Nightly News saying "many Republicans want distance from the President and his message."

The Palm Beach Post reports "the state's top Republican candidates were conspicuously absent from the presidential rally, which drew about 7,500 people." In addition to Crist, Republicans Bill McCollum, "who is seeking to succeed Crist as attorney general, and incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson were campaigning along the Interstate 4 corridor. Tom Lee, the GOP candidate for chief financial officer, also was not in Pensacola."

In addition to visiting Florida, the Washington Times reports Bush addressed campaign rallies in Montana, Nevada, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Florida, Arkansas and Texas. The New York Times also reports on Bush's campaign swing in a story titled "A Last Hurrah Of Sorts For Bush-Rove Partnership," analyzing Bush and Rove's "symbiotic relationship in which, friends say, Mr. Rove, the president's chief political adviser, is both mastermind and supplicant, and Mr. Bush is both leader and follower."

Saddam Could Be Executed By Mid-February.

The AP reports Iraq's appeals court "is expected to rule on Saddam Hussein's guilty verdict and death sentence by the middle of January, the chief prosecutor said Monday, setting in motion a possible execution by mid-February. If the ruling is upheld, The Associated Press has learned that Iraq's three-man presidential council is pledged to allow Saddam's hanging to take place."

Khalilzad To Resign Iraq Post In Coming Months. The AP is reporting Zalmay Khalilzad, "the plainspoken dealmaker and Republican insider who has won praise and criticism for attempts to broker Sunni political participation in Iraq's fragile government," will probably resign as US ambassador in Baghdad "in the coming months," a "Senior Bush administration official said Monday." The Financial Times says Khalilzad's replacement "may be Ryan Crocker, who is ambassador to Pakistan."

Stocks Rally On Eve Of Election.

The stock market rallied yesterday, after a few days of declining numbers. NBC Nightly News took "a look at Wall Street on this day before the national election. The Dow was up more than 119 points [to close at 12,105.55] on today's trading. NASDAQ was also up more than 35 points [to close at 2,365.95]." Also yesterday, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted the US economic expansion is poised for a strong rebound. The Washington Post reports Greenspan addressed financial advisers at a conference in Washington organized by Schwab Institutional. He said "home sales and prices may continue to slide for some time, but the broader US economy appears poised for a rebound."

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POLITICAL NEWS

Democrats Expected To Take House.

On Election Day 2006, the consensus of media commentators is that Democrats will take the House in today's midterm contests. The degree of certainty expressed by most commentators is such that if Republicans managed to hold on to the House, that outcome could well be regarded as a cataclysmic upset. In fact, says today's New York Times, Democrats fear their base's "overheated" expectations may demoralize the party even in victory. Some Democrats worry that a tight Democratic takeover of the House, as opposed to a blowout, may make for "a demoralizing election night, and one with lasting ramifications, sapping the party's spirit and energy heading into the 2008 presidential election cycle."

Another New York Times story notes that even Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee, yesterday "introduced a cautionary note in contrast with confident predictions" by President Bush, Karl Rove and Vice President Dick Cheney that Republicans would retain majorities in the House and Senate. Asked "about his party's prospects in the House, Mr. Mehlman said that although he saw signs of new hope that Republicans could retain control, 'I believe it's going to be very close; I think it remains an uphill climb.'" He "sounded more confident about the Senate."

The Los Angeles Times says "most analysts on both sides agreed it would be extremely difficult for Republicans to prevent Democrats" from capturing a majority in the House." On NBC Nightly News, political analyst Charlie Cook said, "If independents vote breaking 2-1 Democratic, that's how you get into 30, 35-seat loss for Republicans in the house, maybe even higher." In his column for the Capitol Hill newspaper The Hill, former Clinton advisor Dick Morris says "the Republican Party leadership in the House seems doomed to move into a well deserved minority." Analyst Stuart Rothenberg, in his column for Roll Call, another Capitol Hill publication, says "most GOP insiders would be ecstatic if the party held its losses to two dozen or less."

GOP Optimistic Over Grassroots Involvement. GOP sources tell US News Bulletin that they are seeing significant grassroots support and a potential edge in the number of Republicans planning to vote tomorrow. "Our grassroots numbers are exceeding 2004 and that's a good thing, particularly since it's a midterm," says one Republican National Committee official. What's more, the GOP says that there is polling evidence that more Republicans will enthusiastically vote on Tuesday than Democrats, a key that could offset a Democratic wave predicted by the media. That is significant because it was key to President Bush's reelection in 2004 and is a basis for Bush political aide Karl Rove's belief that Tuesday won't produce the power shift so many are predicting.

Democrats Cry Foul Over GOP Phone Banks. A new controversy erupted yesterday over GOP automated phone calls criticizing Democrats. The New York Times says the calls are part of "a telephone blitz that the Republican Party has unleashed in several dozen races that are likely to determine control of the House in Tuesday's elections. And the repeat calls to the same homes have set off a new furor over campaign tactics, with the Democrats claiming the calls violate federal communications rules and are tantamount to harassment." NRCC spokesman Ed Patru "said the phone campaign complied with federal law and was 'drawing contrasts' between the candidates." But Democratic officials "say they fear the saturation calling is just a tactic to irritate voters and discourage them from going to the polls." The Washington Post reports "critics say Republicans crafted the messages to delude voters -- especially those who hang up quickly -- into thinking that Democrats placed the calls."

Senate Control Up In The Air.

Recent polls have buoyed GOP hopes of retaining the Senate, although most analysis out today still see significant GOP losses. The Christian Science Monitor reports a "last-minute tightening in the polls of Senate contests from Montana to Rhode Island to Maryland has thrown some doubt into the calculations of pundits who had come to see a Democratic takeover as possible." The Wall Street Journal says that although "Republican prospects seem slightly brighter in the Senate...enough of these races are now toss-ups to put the Democrats within striking distance. Judging from the polls, the over-under betting on Democratic pickups of Senate seats hovers at around five." ... However, several new polls today have bad news for GOP incumbents. An Ohio Poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Sen. Mike DeWine (R) trailing challenger Sherrod Brown (D) 56%-44%, while a SurveyUSA poll shows Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) trailing challenger Jim Webb (D) 52%-44%. Most polls to date had shown the Virginia race to be a dead heat. ... Meanwhile, a new poll shows Mike Bouchard (R) closing on Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (R) in the final days of the campaign, the Detroit News reports, but it may be a case of too little, too late as he still trails 49%-41%. ... Sen. Chuck Schumer, who heads the Democrats' Senate campaign arm, wouldn't predict that Democrats would take the Senate, CQ Politics reports today, but said they are on "the edge" of doing so, and attributed their success to making the elections a referendum on the Iraq war. ... The Charleston (WV) Gazette reports that one new Senate milestone is expected to be set today 89-year-old West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd (D) is expected to be re-elected to a record ninth term.

Democrats Set To Make Gains In Gubernatorial Races.

Democrats today are expected to win a majority of the nation's governor's mansions. Four states that have long elected Republicans governors New York, Ohio, Colorado and Massachusetts all have Democratic candidates leading by wide margins in the polls following the retirement of the GOP incumbent. In addition, a number of other Republican governors are in tight races with no clear favorite. A SurveyUSA poll shows Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and challenger Mike Hatch (D) tied at 45% apiece, while in Maryland, Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) trails challenger Martin O'Malley (D) 50%-47% in another SurveyUSA poll. Other potential Democratic pickups: Nevada, where GOP candidate Jim Gibbons has been hit by accusations of sexual assault in the last month, and Arkansas, where Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) has consistently held a small lead over Asa Hutchinson (R) in the race replace retiring Gov. Mike Huckabee (R).

Turnout Expected To Be Strong For A Midterm Election.

Turnout is expected to be up this year, USA Today reports, with Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate, predicting that it should eclipse the 39.7% of 2002, the most recent mid-term election, and may exceed 42.1 percent, the recent high for a mid-term election, set in 1982.

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians.

Jay Leno: "Things do not look good for the Republicans tomorrow. In fact, even Saddam Hussein said today, 'I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.'"

Jay Leno: "The unemployment rate came out. It's down to 4.4%, lowest in the world. One of the lowest in the world. Which is good news for Republicans. Yeah. That means after tomorrow, they'll be able to find jobs."

Jay Leno: "President Bush said today that both Cheney and Rumsfeld will remain with him for the rest of his second term. You know what that means -- whatever they got on the President, it must be good."

David Letterman: "Well, tomorrow is election day. You folks getting ready to vote? The only thing that can stop Democrats now is a last minute joke from John Kerry."

David Letterman: "The Democrats are favored to win most races. As a matter of fact, the only Republican in Washington whose seat is safe is Lincoln."

Conan O'Brien: "Today in Florida on the last day of campaigning, a Republican politician refused to appear in public with President Bush because the President is so unpopular. Yeah, and it's worse than it sounds because the politician was former Congressman Mark Foley."

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