Bush Leads By Two Points In ABC, Zogby Polls, By Six In ICR Survey
ABC Evening News reported, "Our latest ABC News tracking poll finds that the presidential race is a virtual dead heat. 49% of likely voters say they are for President Bush. 47% say they will vote for John Kerry." In the poll of 1155 likely voters, 1% would vote for Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo; 1% would vote for another candidate; 1% would vote for neither; 1% had no opinion. 50% of registered voters would vote for Bush and Cheney; 45% would vote for Kerry and Edwards; 2% would vote for Nader and Camejo; 1% would vote for neither; 2% had no opinion.
Reuters reports this morning on a new Zogby poll showing Bush with a "narrow two-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry less than four weeks before the Nov. 2 presidential election." Bush "led the Massachusetts senator 46-44 percent in the initial three-day tracking poll, with eight percent of likely voters still undecided ahead of Friday's second face-to-face debate between the White House rivals in St. Louis." Ralph Nader gets 2% in the poll. While Kerry "once hoped the economy would give him a vital advantage, he has not been able to break away from Bush among voters worried about the topic. 'Kerry's edge on the economy is gone,' pollster John Zogby said. 'Among those who cite the economy as the top issue, the candidates are in a dead heat – Bush holding a slight edge' at 46-44 percent." The national tracking poll of 1,217 likely voters, "the first in a daily series that will continue through Nov. 1, was taken Monday through Wednesday."
Meanwhile, an ICR poll of 1010 adults, including 866 registered voters (+/- 3.3%) and 762 likely voters (+/- 3.5%), conducted over October 1-5, shows 50.7% of likely voters would vote for George W. Bush; 44.4% would vote for John Kerry; 4.9% would vote for others or were undecided.
Electoral College Analysis Continues To Show Tight Race.
The Wall Street Journal reports Sen. John Kerry's strategists "are all but conceding hopes of carrying Republican-leaning states such as Missouri, Arizona and Louisiana, while Republicans acknowledge that coastal targets Washington and Maine may be out of reach for President Bush." Charles Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, "suggests Messrs. Kerry and Bush are running nearly even for electoral votes in battleground states. At the moment, Mr. Cook counts 208 electoral votes for Mr. Bush and 207 for Mr. Kerry."
Post-Debate Polls Have Good News For Both Kerry, Bush.
In his Roll Call column, Stuart Rothenberg says that while national polls show John Kerry " 'won' the first presidential debate of 2004, those same surveys delivered other pieces of good news to both Kerry and President Bush." Kerry "has gained on the president in all public surveys – an important shot in the arm to loyalists who were starting to feel as if their man was headed for certain defeat." But Bush "continues to lead on the important questions of the day – the war against terrorism and the war in Iraq (which may or may not be the same thing, depending on your partisanship and your view of Bush)." Friday night's "debate is obviously crucial for Bush. Another weak performance could begin to shake loose a few of those strongly committed backers, creating a sense of defeat among Republicans that could drain their enthusiasm and their turnout."
