Bush Remains Ahead In Time, Zogby, AP And Newsweek Polls
ATime survey of 857 likely voters "reveals that President Bush has retained the solid 11-point lead he earned during the New York City convention earlier this month. Kerry's support has eroded across almost every demographic group but most notably among women. In a departure from recent patterns, among registered voters, women now favor Bush over Kerry by 45% to 44%, and men are breaking for the President by a lopsided 56% to 34%."
A Zogby International poll of 1,018 likely voters (+/- 3.1%), conducted over 9/8-9/9, shows 46% would vote for George W. Bush if the election were held today; 42% John Kerry; 2.4% Ralph Nader; 0.9% Michael Badnarik (Libertarian); 0.3% Michael Peroutka (Constitution); 0% David Cobb (Green); 0.6% other; 8% undecided.
An AP-Ipsos poll of 1541 adults, including 1286 registered voters (+/- 3.5%) and 899 likely voters (+/- 2.5%), conducted over September 7-9, shows 51% of likely voters would vote for Bush and Cheney; 46% would vote for Kerry and Edwards; 1% would vote for Nader and Camejo; 2% don't know. 51% of registered voters would vote for Bush and Cheney; 43% would vote for Kerry and Edwards; 2% would vote for Nader. 47% "want to see the Republicans win control of Congress"; 45% want the Democrats to win; 5% said neither; 3% were not sure.
The latest Newsweek poll" of 1,003 registered voters (+/-4%), conducted over September 9 and 10, "shows George W. Bush's double-digit 'bounce' narrowing to six points. Bush-Cheney had enjoyed an 11-point lead over the Kerry-Edwards ticket coming out of their convention, but in the latest poll. . .the incumbents now lead 49 percent to 43 percent in a three-way race. With 2 percent of the vote going to Ralph Nader, removing the independent candidate from the ticket has little effect on the spread, with 50 percent of the vote for Bush and 45 percent Kerry."
Bush Bounce Said To Have Reduced Number Of True Battleground States.
Sunday's Washington Post reported that "Bush's post-convention bounce in state and national polls has left Democratic challenger John F. Kerry with a smaller battlefield upon which to contest the presidential election and a potentially more difficult route to an electoral college victory than his advisers envisioned a few months ago. . . . The presidential race looks closer in many battleground states than some national polls suggest, a morale boost for Democrats after Kerry's worst month of the general election. But as the number of truly competitive states has shrunk, Kerry is faced with the reality that he must pick off one of two big battlegrounds Bush won four years ago Florida or Ohio or capture virtually every other state still available. To do that, he must hold onto several states Al Gore won in 2000 that are now highly competitive. . . . An examination of state polls and interviews with strategists in the two campaigns and the parties suggests that, with less than two months before the election, the 10 most competitive states are, in order of electoral vote strength, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire."
Kerry Says Race Going Extraordinarily Well. Time reports that in an interview, Sen. John Kerry said, "I think we are doing extraordinarily well. I think this is a close race, and it's going to be a close race. I feel very confident in where we are and confident about the direction of this race."
Rothenberg Says 2004 Election "Eerily Similar" To 1988.
In his column for the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes, "Increasingly, I have the strange feeling that I've seen this presidential race before. . . . All campaigns have things in common, but the 1988 and 2004 contests, each pitting a Bush against a Massachusetts Democrat, are eerily similar, at least so far: A Bush trailed before the conventions but led after the GOP convention. Don't be surprised if this year's race continues to follow the '88 script in more ways than you might expect."