Polls Show Bush On "Favorable Ground" As Campaigns Enter Final Two Months
As the campaign enters its decisive stage, polls released yesterday showed President Bush with leads ranging from four points (Fox News) to nine (ABC/WPost poll). The New York Times says today "the results signal that the president is on favorable ground as he enters the final two months of the campaign." On CNN, political analyst William Schneider said "Bush clearly has momentum coming out of his party's convention. And for the first time all year, it's fair to say this campaign has a frontrunner."
Bush Leads 52%-43% In ABC/WPost Poll.
The Washington Post reports on a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Among likely voters, "Bush holds a lead of 52 percent to 43 percent over Kerry, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 2 percent of the hypothetical vote." Bush's "favorable rating rose slightly to 51 percent, and his overall approval rating rose another notch to 52 percent. An identical percentage of voters said Bush deserves a second term." On ABC World News Tonight, political commentator George Stephanopoulos called the new results a "real kick in the teeth" for Sen. Kerry," noting that the poll "shows that Mr. Bush has a slight lead over Kerry on that crucial question of who could best handle the economy." In addition, the survey "showed Bush with a 53 percent to 37 percent advantage. . .when voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq." These results "challenge what some public opinion analysts had for years assumed was a reliable link – which some scholars argued operated with an almost mathematical precision – between combat deaths and erosion of support for military operations."
Bush Leads By Seven Points Among Registered Voters In CBS News Poll.
CBS Evening News reports that the new CBS News poll "of registered voters finds the President now leads Senator John Kerry by seven points. They were virtually tied going into the Republican convention." The poll of registered voters shows 50% would vote for Bush; 42% would vote for Kerry; 1% said "it depends"; 7% don't know. With Nader in the race, 49% would vote for Bush; 42% would vote for Kerry; 1% would vote for Nader; 1% wouldn't vote; 1% said it depends; 6% don't know. 50% approve "of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President"; 43% disapprove; 7% don't know.
Bush Leads Kerry By Four Points In Three Way Race In Fox News Poll.
A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 1000 likely voters, conducted over September 7-8 (+/- 3%), shows 49% approve "of the job George W. Bush is doing as President"; 44% disapprove; 7% don't know. 47% would vote for George Bush; 43% would vote for John Kerry; 3% would vote for Ralph Nader; 7% were not sure.
Poll Buzz Is That Independents Aren't Answering Questions.
Republican officials, skeptical of Bush's double-digit lead in some polls, report today that many GOP pollsters claim that the sought-after class of independent voters is not a large part of the latest polling. The reason, they claim, is that the independents still haven't made up their mind on who to vote for and are refusing to answer poll questions. "The independents aren't answering the calls," said one GOP official. "So the polls aren't capturing them." In fact, some GOP officials agree with Democrats that the race is a lot closer than many of the polls realize and are bracing for a huge poll shift when the independents finally decide who to vote for and reveal that to pollsters.
Republican Worry About Kerry GOTV Efforts.
Republicans today expressed concerns that the Bush-Cheney team hasn't matched the Kerry-Edwards get-out-the-vote efforts for the fall election. Citing reports of hundreds of thousands of Democrats comprising Kerry's GOTV team, a senior Republican official told US News Bulletin, "If that's true I hope we're as good, but I've heard nothing about our effort." GOP officials, however, said that the Republican National Committee has established precinct captains and special GOTV teams that are being regularly briefed on how to get voters to the polls. "We'll be ready when it counts," said a GOP official.
