Bush Jumps To Clear Leads In Missouri, Ohio And Arizona In New Polls
New polls show President Bush with clear leads in Missouri, Ohio and Arizona. According to USA Today, Missouri, "which was tied in a USA TODAY poll taken just before the Democratic National Convention in July, now shows Bush ahead of Kerry by 55%-41% among likely voters. Bush carried the state in 2000 by 3 percentage points." Bush's "14-point edge in Missouri raises questions about whether the traditional bellwether is still competitive. The Kerry campaign hasn't purchased air time for TV ads in the state this month." Ohio, "where Bush lagged by 6 points in mid-July, now favors him by 9 points." In the Pennsylvania Gallup poll, 48% of likely voters would vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; 47% would vote for John Kerry and John Edwards; 5% would vote for neither. In Washington State, Kerry leads 52%-44%.
Meanwhile, an Arizona Republic poll of 600 likely voters, conducted by Market Solutions Group over September 3-5 (+/- 4%), shows 54% would vote for George W. Bush; 38% would vote for John Kerry; 7% were unsure. In the Republic's July-August survey, Bush led Kerry 48%-45%.
Kerry Camp Limits TV Advertising, Schedules Show Both Sides Focusing On Eight States.
The AP says that after "months of pledging to contest President Bush in every region of the country, Sen. John Kerry and Democrats are limiting television advertising to 14 battleground states as the fall campaign opens." The shift "bumps GOP-leaning Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and several Southern states off the political playing field – at least for now – and gives Bush reason to consider moving money from some of those states to others that historically trend Democratic." The Kerry campaign "has bought time in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Oregon. Those are the campaign's 10 most competitive states, ranking at the top of Bush's advertising priorities as well." Meanwhile, a report in USA Today this morning notes that a USA TODAY database of campaign schedules shows that the candidates and their running mates are returning again and again to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, West Virginia and Minnesota. Since March, they have visited those eight states 170 times, compared with just 74 visits to the other nine battleground states."
Bush Bounce Prompts GOP Predictions Of House, Senate Coattails.
Republican strategists said yesterday that if the numbers continue to show a Bush victory in the fall, it could also mean more House and Senate Republican seats will be won. While no Republican official is declaring victory yet, some are dusting off old predictions of a strong victory for Bush in the fall. One scenario developed by a White House ally and shared with US News Bulletin shows a 43 state Electoral victory. And with a strong showing, Bush could help the Republicans pick up the 'high end of the range' of House and Senate seats: Ten-plus in the House and four to five in the Senate.
National Polls Continue To Show Tight Race.
While Bush appears to have gained leads in all-important battleground states which could decide the Electoral College battle, national polls show the race very close. An ICR poll of 720 likely voters, conducted over September 1-5 (+/- 3.5%), shows 46% would vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; 46% would vote for John Kerry and John Edwards; 4% would vote for Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo; 4% were unsure. A Rasmussen Reports tracking poll conducted over September 5-7 shows 48% would vote for Bush, 46% would vote for John Kerry and 2% would vote for "other candidates," with 3% were not sure.
Kerry Campaign Tells House Democrats To Follow Gallup Poll Closest.
In an effort to quell nervousness over its current standing, The Hill reports the Kerry campaign "stiffened the spines of House Democrats yesterday, giving a closed-door caucus meeting a Power Point presentation that painted a rosy picture for the Democratic presidential campaign." Kerry aide Tad Devine "told the lawmakers that they should follow the Gallup poll closest and that it has the best track record of discerning the public's mood. The Gallup poll has Bush leading Kerry by seven points."
Global Poll Shows Overwhelming Support For Kerry Over Bush.
The Financial Times today reports on a poll of 35 countries on the Bush-Kerry race. Conducted by conducted by GlobeScan, a public opinion group, and the University of Maryland, the poll shows Kerry favored overwhelmingly in 30 countries. "Only Poland, Nigeria and the Philippines backed Mr Bush, while India and Thailand were a statistical tie." In Germany, "74 percent of respondents said they backed Mr Kerry against only 10 per cent for Mr Bush. In France only 5 percent supported the president. In the UK, the margin was 47 percent to 16 in favour of the challenger." In China, "52 percent of those asked backed Mr Kerry against Mr Bush."
