The AP this morning reports that Sen. Kerry "has opened narrow leads in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and a handful of other battleground state polls since accepting the Democratic nomination, increasing pressure on President Bush to regain lost ground at the Republican National Convention. . . . Buoyed by the polls, Kerry's team is growing confident – maybe too confident for some Democrats. Several supporters worry that rising expectations are setting the party up for disappointment should the race tighten after Bush's convention in New York, which begins Aug. 30." The AP notes, "The Kerry campaign has plenty of positive numbers to cite, including: A Quinnipiac University poll showing" Kerry and Edwards "with a slight lead in Florida over" Bush and Cheney. "An Epic-MRA survey suggesting that Michigan is tilting slightly toward the Democratic ticket. An American Research Group survey showing Kerry-Edwards with small lead in New Hampshire." Meanwhile, an American Research Group poll of 600 likely Ohio voters (+/-4%), conducted over 8/9-8/11, shows that 48% "say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 45% say they would vote for Bush." 2% "say they would vote for Ralph Nader." 5% "are undecided. In a race between just Kerry and Bush, Kerry is at 48%, Bush is at 45%, and 7% are undecided."
Kerry Leads By 18 In New York.
A Quinnipiac University Poll of 1,161 New York state registered voters (+/- 2.9%) has John Kerry leading George Bush 53%-35% with Ralph Nader at 4%. Without Nader in the race, Kerry leads Bush 55%-35%.
Novak Says Electoral Map Favors Kerry.
Robert Novak said on CNN's Inside Politics yesterday afternoon that the electoral map is "looking a little worse for President Bush, even though the Gallup poll has him a little bit ahead in the popular vote. In the electoral vote, the map that we keep. . .we have 301 electoral votes for Kerry and 237 for Bush. That is an increase for Kerry, picking up West Virginia. We switched West Virginia from Bush to Kerry, five votes there. Florida, Michigan and Nevada are close, but they're all leaning Kerry. Arkansas is very tight, leaning Bush. Bush needs to hold Ohio and Florida, as well as pick up another state in order to be elected. And so it's an uphill climb for President Bush."
Morris Says Florida Is Like A Transplanted Northern State.
Dick Morris was asked on Fox News' O'Reilly Factor (8/12) to comment on the recent Quinnipiac Poll and what it means for the President. Morris said that Bush is "eleven points behind if you put Nader and Kerry together. There's no guarantee, I think, that Nader's on the Florida ballot. But I think that Kerry can win Florida by focusing on the environment, just as Al Gore could have. It is the most environmentally conscious state in the union – Issues like offshore drilling, the Everglades." Emphasizing Florida's demographics, Morris pointed to "the huge Hispanic, non-Cuban immigration, the increasing black population, and the northernization of Florida. You know, Florida gains about 5 percent in population every year, at least in voters. It's becoming about 3 percent every year. It's becoming a northern state. And if you want to know why Florida is Democratic, ask why New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, and Michigan, and Wisconsin are Democratic, because that's where they're coming from. Twenty percent of the vote in Florida didn't live there five years ago. So you're dealing with, essentially, a state that keeps getting recreated, that is essentially a northern state now, transplanted into the South. This is not the neighboring state of Georgia and Alabama. It's the neighboring state of New York, and Pennsylvania, and New Jersey."
