Kerry Leads By Five In Time Poll; Terror Fears May Be Losing Edge
Time reports as part of its cover package that last week's terrorism alert put President Bush and Sen. Kerry "at odds over terrorism in a way that was more confrontational and personal than ever. . . . But if Bush and Kerry think there are voters to be won by squabbling over the proper approach to protect the homeland, they might want to pay heed to the results of the latest TIME poll. It suggests that the fear of terrorism, absent another attack on U.S. soil, may be losing some of its edge with voters. In the three-day poll, conducted after the alert level was raised, just 21% of likely voters reported being 'very worried' about a terrorist attack in the near future which was only slightly higher than the 17% who described themselves that way in mid-July. . . . All of which helps explain why the chilling news has done little more than leave the presidential race frozen in place. TIME's poll showed the lead remains within the margin of error, with Kerry ahead of Bush 48% to 43% among likely voters, with Ralph Nader receiving 4%, and a mere 3% of those polled saying they are undecided."
Kerry Leads Bush By Three Points In Three-Man Race, AP Poll Finds.
According to an AP poll, "in a three-way matchup," John Kerry and running mate John Edwards have the backing of 48 percent, President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 45 percent and independent Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo 3 percent among registered voters. In July, Bush had a slight lead over Kerry 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent backing Nader
Kerry Seen As More Optimistic Than Bush, Annenberg Poll Finds.
Kerry leads Bush on the question of who conveys more optimism, according to a National Annenberg Election Survey run by the University of Pennsylvania. The poll showed 42 percent of the independent voters prized by both candidates think Kerry is more optimistic, while 30 percent think Bush is.
Kerry Leads Bush By Two Points In Iowa Des Moines Register Poll.
A Strategic Vision poll for the Des Moines Register of 801 likely Iowa voters (+/-3%) taken 7/31-8/3 has Kerry leading Bush 48%-46% with Nader at 2%. Without Nader, Kerry leads 49%-46%. In a poll conducted 7/19-7/21, Kerry led 48%-46% in a three-way race.
Kerry Up By Seven In New Hampshire.
An American Research Group poll of 600 likely New Hampshire voters (+/-4%) taken 8/3-8/5 has John Kerry leading George Bush 49%-42% with Ralph Nader pulling 2% and 7% undecided.
Kerry Up By Seven In Florida.
An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Florida voters (+/-4%) taken 8/3-8/5 has John Kerry leading George Bush 50%-43% with Ralph Nader pulling 2% and 5% undecided.
Kerry Holds Comfortable Lead In California.
A new Field Poll shows Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush in California by a 51-40 margin, with Ralph Nader taking 2%. The poll of 633 Californians was conducted between July 30 and August 4, and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
Despite Lack Of Bounce, Growing Crowds Seen As Sign Kerry's Support Increasing.
The New York Times reports from New Mexico, where Kerry campaigned this weekend, that polls "may not show much of a post-convention bounce for Mr. Kerry, but his crowds tell a different story. Before the convention, he only rarely drew more than a few thousand people to a rally. Since setting off from the convention in Boston, though, his events have consistently been mob scenes, with or without his running mate and with or without Ben Affleck, who accompanied him for the first two days of the trip."
Bush Regains Lead Over Kerry On Political Futures Markets.
The New York Times reports in its "Political Points" column that "Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets, where tens of thousands of investors spend real money to buy futures contracts," opened "the summer bullish on Mr. Bush, typically paying about 55 cents for a futures contract that would pay $1 if he wins, which means they gave him a 55 percent chance of victory. The price dropped after the selection of John Edwards as Mr. Kerry's running mate, and it fell further the week before the convention." But "before Mr. Kerry's speech Thursday, he was again the underdog, and after his speech the traders continued selling him short." The Times notes, "In the last four presidential elections. . .the election-eve trading price has typically been within 1.5 percentage points of the actual result, which is about half a point more accurate than the average election-eve poll."