There is evidence that these results are part of a national swing against Democrats–and Bill Clinton. Pollsters of both parties note that in most districts, fewer voters favor re-electing Clinton than want to replace him with someone else. His major domestic policy initiatives are bogged down and his foreign policy perceived to be inept. Clinton has not added to the 43 percent he won in 1992 and may have lost some. And Democrats seem to be losing advantages that historically helped them maintain control of the House even when their policies were unpopular: Incumbency is increasingly a liability rather than an asset. Voters care more about cutting the budget than getting local pork barrel projects. Attractive personal characteristics are ignored, and unpopular stands on issues are the focus. Without those advantages, Democrats would have lost control of the House several times over the past 40 years. This year, big Republican gains might produce a partisan balance closer to what voters have wanted all along.
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Democrats hope that passage of a healthcare package and a crime bill will rescue their candidates. But the latter is tied up over a "racial justice" provision, and the former looks increasingly like a dud–polls show that voters prefer no bill to one about which they have doubts. Republicans plan to support as a bloc popular proposals like pay cuts and staff cutbacks to mark them as the party of reform. They will portray Democrats, after four decades of House control, as evil Washington insiders. Against this, Democrats' attempts to blame the Republican minority for gridlock seem weak, and their attacks on the religious right have yet to pay off. Will their string be broken at 40?
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