Democratic states: Will surely remain Democratic (13): Ark., Calif., Hawaii, Maine, Md., Mass., N.J, N.Y., R.I., Tenn., Vt., Wa., W.Va. Will likely remain Democratic (3): N.D., Ore. Repubs must win both Ore.-1 and Ore.-5 (longshots), S.D. (where Stephanie Herseth, a narrow winner in the June special election, is behind in the latest Zogby poll).
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My prognosis: Democrats could easily lose one delegation.
But there are also four tied delegations, which cast no vote if the election goes to the House. It seems certain that two will remain evenly divided, Wisconsin and Mississippi. But Mississippi Democrat Gene Taylor is a strong-spirited maverick, and predicting what he will do is risky. There is some mild chance that Minnesota could go Democratic, though incumbent Republican Mark Kennedy seems well ahead in Minn.-6. But the fourth tied delegation seems overwhelmingly likely to go Republican. That is Texas. Democrats have held their majority because of Rep. Martin Frost's 1990s redistricting plan, which was the basis of a court-ordered redistricting plan effective in 2002. But in November 2003, Rep. Tom DeLay's redistricting plan—as partisanly Republican as Frost's was partisanly Democratic—was passed by the legislature and signed by Gov. Rick Perry. It's in effect for this election, and Republicans have already gained one seat; their nominee in a new district has no Democratic opponent. Republicans seem sure to win two or three more seats and could win as many as six. Any gain would give Texas a Republican delegation. That, plus the 25 delegations that I believe are certain to remain Republican, means that if George W. Bush wins 269 electoral votes he will be re-elected by the House. All this is barring a strong partisan shift toward the Democrats for which I have seen no evidence in the polls.
A couple of more points. One argument against election by the House is that it gives undue effect to small states: Wyoming (1 House member, population less than 500,000 people) casts the same one vote as California (53 House members, population about 35 million). But small states, at least in the current House, do not give Republicans a big advantage.
Take the delegations with one member. Of these, four are held by Republicans (Alaska, Del., Mont., Wyo.) and three by Democrats (N.D., S.D., Vt.). Of delegations with two members, two are Republican (Idaho, N.H.), two Democratic (Hawaii, R.I.). Of delegations with three members, three are Republican (Neb., N.M., Utah) and one Democratic (W.Va.).
A more likely explanation of why the Democrats are in such an unfavorable position is the Voting Rights Act, which has been interpreted to require the maximization of the number of heavily Democratic majority-minority districts, which removes Democratic areas from other districts and makes them more likely to elect Republicans. This has been a factor in the Republican majorities in 11 states—Ala., Ariz., Fla., Ga., Ill., La., Miss., N.C., Ohio, Pa., S.C.—as well as the likely Republican majority in Texas. Absent this factor, Democrats might be in a position to elect John Kerry president if he gets 269 electoral votes.
One more thing. If the electoral vote is 269-269, the vice president is elected by the Senate that assembles on January 3. If Democrats have a majority, they will elect John Edwards. If Republicans have a majority, or 50 senators plus Dick Cheney as the incumbent vice president, they will elect Dick Cheney.
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