On October 27, the Washington Post ran a story by Dana Milbank about how a computer projected 33 different ways the vote in the Electoral College could be tied 269-269. The possibility of a tie has been with us ever since the 23rd Amendment, ratified in 1961, gave the District of Columbia three electoral votes. That's because the total number of electors from the states is the same as the number of their senators and House members. The number of senators is always even, since each state has two. The number of House members has always been odd since Congress by statute in the early 1900s set the number of House members at 435; when Alaska and Hawaii became states just before the 1960 election, they each were given one House member and so the number was still odd. So in the presidential elections from 1908 to 1960, the number of electors was always odd, and a tie was not possible except in the case of a faithless elector. Starting in 1964, the number of electors has been even, and a tie is possible—all the more so in an election like this one, in which the voters seem about equally split between the candidates.
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Under the Constitution, if no candidate gets an absolute majority of the electors, the president is elected by the House, with each state's delegation getting one vote. Currently, Republicans control 30 state delegations in the House, Democrats 16, and 4 are tied. That means that if today's House were voting and George W. Bush and John Kerry each had 269 electoral votes, Bush would be elected. But it is the House to be elected November 2 that votes. Will the Republicans still have a majority of state delegations in the House?
The answer is almost certainly yes. By my estimate, 24 House delegations are sure to retain Republican majorities. Six Republican delegations could conceivably shift to Democratic. That would give the Democrats 22 delegations, not enough to elect Kerry. Furthermore, only 13 of the 16 Democratic delegations are, in my view, certain to remain Democratic. Three could go Republican; and if two of them did, Republicans, even in their worst case scenario, would have 26 delegations, the needed majority.
Here are my estimates of the prospects for Republicans and Democrats retaining their current partisan majorities.
Republican delegations: Will surely remain Republican (25): Ala., Alaska, Ariz., Del., Fla., Ga., Idaho, Ind., Iowa, Kan., Ky., La., Miss., Mo., Mont., Neb., N.H., Ohio, Okla., Pa., S.C., Utah, Va., Wyo. Will likely remain Republican (4): Colo. (Demos could win the open seat Colo.-3, but Bob Beauprez in Colo.-7 seems well ahead because of opponent's Columbine problems), Ill. (Phil Crane is being seriously challenged in what should be a safe Republican seat), Nev. (Nev.-3 a possible upset), N.M. (N.M.-1 always close), N.C. (N.C.-11 in some jeopardy). Fairly good chance of switching from Republican to Democratic (1): Conn. (if either Rob Simmons in Conn.-2 or Chris Shays in Conn.-4 loses).
My prognosis: Republicans are very unlikely to lose more than two delegations. That would leave them with 28 delegations, a solid win for Bush.
