But now Hawaii is close, and George W. Bush apparently has a chance to win the state, or to do as well as Gerald Ford. Why does Hawaii tend to favor incumbent presidents and lean toward incumbent vice presidents? My theory has long been that this tendency is particularly strong in Hawaii's Japanese-Americans. The Japanese-Americans who got into politics in the 1950s had vivid memories of the time not long before when their patriotism and loyalty were questioned. Inouye and other prominent Japanese-Americans served in the 442d Regimental Combat Team, which became the most decorated military unit in U.S. military history. In election after election, Democrats have summoned up memories of the time when the loyalty of Japanese-Americans was questioned and when they proved their patriotism in battle: such appeals helped narrowly beat Linda Lingle in 1998.
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The Honolulu Advertiser noted that many Japanese-Americans in their poll said they were undecided, and that many Filipino-Americans were voting for Bush. Hawaii's large military population may also account for this support of the incumbent president. The Advertiser: "'I'm a Democrat but I strongly support what President Bush is doing,' said Jun Elegino, a nursing student at Hawaii Pacific University who serves in the Army National Guard. 'He's my commander-in-chief.'" The Star-Bulletin reported that Filipino-Americans favored Bush by a 56 to 36 percent margin and that half of Japanese-Americans and more than half of Native Hawaiians backed Bush; in other elections these groups almost always vote heavily Democratic.
It's unlikely that both these polls are flukes. The only two earlier public polls in Hawaii showed the race far closer than in 2000: American Research Group had Kerry leading 51 to 41 percent in September and the Star-Bulletin had him leading 48 to 41 percent just after the Democratic National Convention. So it seems that Hawaii is really in play.
Now consider this scenario from election night. It is minutes before 11 p.m. Eastern time. George W. Bush has carried Florida but has lost Ohio and New Hampshire, states he carried in 2000. Of the states he lost in 2000 he has won is Iowa. That leaves him with 261 electoral votes. There are six states where the polls have yet to close. One of them is Alaska, whose polls don't close until 1 a.m. Eastern time; that is certain to produce 3 electoral votes for Bush, but those won't be put on the board for two hours. Of the five others, California and Washington seem sure to vote for John Kerry. One, Idaho, will contribute 4 electoral votes to Bush: that puts him at 268. Another, Oregon, with its 7 electoral votes, has mail-in ballots and the results may not be known for several days. And that leaves Hawaii, with its 4 electoral votes. If they go for Bush, which now seems possible but by no means certain, he would have 272 electoral votes, 1 more than in 2000. It's just possible that Hawaii could put Bush over the top.
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