Big caveat: These are only a few numbers—five polls in New York, five in New Jersey, two in Maryland. If there is a national trend back to Kerry, there will be similar trends in the battleground states, and Bush's margin in Bush 2000 states will probably start falling. States like Virginia, North Carolina, and Arizona—all previously eyed by the Kerry campaign—may come back into play. Kerry is still ahead 10 points in New York polls, though by only 4 percent in Maryland and 2 percent in New Jersey. Karl Rove told the Washington Times that he is keeping a close eye on New Jersey, and the Bush campaign may go on the air in New York (it is already reaching 30 percent of the state with ads on Philadelphia TV). The Kerry campaign insists it won't go on the air in New York, the nation's largest media market; in 2000, the Gore campaign chose to stay off the air in California while the Bush campaign spent $10 million there, and Gore carried California by 12 percent. The Kerry strategists evidently would rather bet on winning than on spending money to hold down a Bush electoral vote majority. That makes sense, and it seems almost certain that if Bush carries New Jersey or Maryland he will already have accumulated 270 votes from other states.
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But a closer party balance in the Metroliner states would have an effect on the 2006 congressional and 2008 presidential races. It would make safer the Northeastern seats House Republicans have held onto. It may leave some Democratic House seats vulnerable. It would make Republicans potentially competitive in those states in 2008, which would provide an argument for nominating Rudolph Giuliani, George Pataki, or (if a constitutional amendment is passed) Arnold Schwarzenegger. In 40 days we will know who won the presidential election (unless there is another Florida). But we will also know if the durable contours of political support that have stayed in place since 1996 have been changed.
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