Kentucky's Fourth District. Two Democratic polls have shown Democrat Nick Clooney leading Republican Geoff Davis by about 10 percent. Davis is not an incumbent; he lost in 2002 by 51 to 48 percent to conservative Democrat Ken Lucas, who is not seeking re-election. But this was a 61-to-37 percent Bush district in 2000, and I and others who follow these things considered Davis an almost sure winner. Clooney does have certain personal advantages: he was a columnist for a decade for the Cincinnati Enquirer, widely circulated in the northern Kentucky counties that make up half the district. And he is the father of movie actor George Clooney, who has raised significant money for him. Less well known, perhaps, is the fact that Nick Clooney takes very liberal stands on issues, not popular in such a district. This provides an obvious campaign strategy for Davis. But this is not a district Republicans should be behind in.
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North Carolina's 11th District. Democrats have a poll showing their candidate trailing incumbent Republican Charles Taylor by only 45 to 42 percent. This is a 58-to-40 percent Bush district, but Taylor has been involved in controversies concerning taxes on the extensive forest lands he owns and a bank he controls. He has eked out victories before while coming from behind.
In sum, the evidence that incumbent Republicans are in trouble in August is far weaker than the evidence that incumbent Democrats were in trouble in July 1994. It is not wholly insignificant, however. Republicans should be concerned about all four of these races—and about some similarly situated seats. Democrats have a good chance to win in several Republican-held open seats: Colorado's Third, Louisiana's Third, New York's 27th, and Washington's Eighth. And they could become competitive in three more: Pennsylvania's Eighth, Pennsylvania's 15th, and Washington's Fifth. And, technically, with Republicans holding 228 seats now, Democrats need pick up only a net 11 to win a majority of 218.
But it's a little harder than that. The 2003 redistricting in Texas changed the playing field. Republicans have already gained one seat there: In a new, heavily Republican district there is no Democratic candidate. And five Democratic incumbents are running in heavily Republican seats that include much territory they have never represented: Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Chet Edwards, Charles Stenholm, and Martin Frost. Some are fighting hard to win, but it would not be surprising to see four or all five of them lose (two are facing incumbent Republicans). So Democrats need to pick up not a net 11 but a net of at least 15 non-Texas seats in order to get a majority. Without a stronger showing against incumbent Republicans, that looks to be impossible. Democrats could gain House seats. But so could Republicans. And it looks as if there needs to be a noticeable shift of public opinion in the Democratic direction for us to get a Democratic House next year.
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