Pew found that the percentage saying military action in Iraq was the right decision rose from 51 to 55 percent from April and May to June and the percentage saying the situation in Iraq was going very or fairly well rose from 46 to 57 percent. Battleground found Bush preferred over Kerry on handling the war in Iraq by 51 to 42 percent and on safeguarding America from a terrorist threat by 59 to 36 percent. Gallup found little change on opinion in Iraq from May to June.
advertisement
Browse through an archive of columns by Michael Barone.
On the economy, Battleground in March found Kerry preferred in keeping America prosperous by 49 to 42, while Bush was preferred in June by 47 to 46 percent. Gallup found that Bush's job approval on the economy, which was 41 percent in May and early June, rose to 50 percent in late June.
What is likely to happen in the future? That surely depends on events, but some guesses can be hazarded. The course of events in Iraq, of course, cannot be predicted with certainty. But with the turnover to the interim Iraqi government and the withdrawal of American troops from the cities, the news media are likely to pay less attention to Iraq than they were in April and May. Indeed, they paid less attention in June, and that seems to have helped Bush. Most media coverage of Iraq has been tilted to the negative; reporters and editors, the large majority of them well to the left politically, evidently believe that good news in Iraq is not news. Some have speculated that an absence of news from Iraq would hurt Bush on the theory that voters would be less inclined to accept his view that we are at war. My guess is that the news environment on Iraq will be more favorable than in April and May.
On the economy, one can guess with more confidence. The economy is growing rapidly, and the economy is now creating vast numbers of jobs, as it did during most of the 1980s and 1990s, without significant inflation. While most of the news media do not report job gains nearly as prominently as job losses, the facts seem to be getting through to the voters. Kerry has wisely shifted from concentration on the "jobless recovery" to other, more plausible economic themes. Economic growth is likely to continue, and the economy is likely to become something of a positive issue for Bush.
One final factor. Both candidates have high unfavorables. That's not too surprising about Bush, an assertive incumbent president in a closely divided country. But Kerry's high unfavorables are unusual for a challenger candidate at this stage of the campaign. In particular, many voters see him taking stands for political reasons and trying to be on both sides of an issue. The Bush campaign has spent millions on ads making these points, and they seem to have worked. Kerry will have a chance at the Democratic National Convention to reduce his unfavorables and increase his favorables and may well do so: Challengers have more leverage to change their images since voters know relatively little about them. Bush strategists say they expect Kerry to emerge from his convention with a lead, and that certainly seems possible. But I wonder whether the conventions may have less impact than in the past. Broadcast network coverage will be sparse, and the more politically interested folks who will watch more of the proceedings on cable tend to have their minds made up. There's still every reason to believe this will be a close election.
Previous Page
