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Was this the week that George W. Bush clinched re-election? Could be. Two kinds of numbers suggest it may be–the poll numbers and the job numbers.
First, the poll numbers. These suggest that the Bush campaign’s negative ads against John Kerry, which began airing in 17 target states March 11, have hit home. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, typically the most volatile of national polls, showed John Kerry leading Bush, 52 to 44 percent, March 5–7. It showed Bush leading Kerry, 51 to 47 percent, March 26–28. More important, in the 17 target states, Kerry, in the glow of his primary victories, had led Bush, 63 to 35 percent, in mid-February. By late March, Bush led in the same states, 51 to 45 percent.
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The key change was in attitudes toward Kerry. His favorable/unfavorable ratings nationally in mid-February were 60 to 26 percent. In late March, they were 53 to 36 percent. Similar increases in Kerry’s unfavorables nationally were recorded in the Fox News poll (up from 28 percent to 36 percent between early March and late March). Most likely there were even sharper increases in Kerry’s unfavorables in the 17 target states where Bush negative ads have been running.
At the same time, Bush’s ratings have not suffered and, if anything, have improved. This is despite the national media’s heavy coverage of Richard Clarke’s charges that Bush did not vigorously pursue the war on terrorism and despite the large number of negative ads run by Democratic so-called 527 organizations. It is generally the rule that negative ads have the most leverage when they are attacking a candidate, like Kerry, about whom voters have relatively little information than when they are attacking a candidate, like Bush, about whom voters have a great deal of information.
Onetime Clinton pollster Dick Morris argues that Kerry’s negatives are permanent. I think it is too soon to say that. Their sticking power depends on whether you think Bush’s charges–that Kerry is too liberal on spending and defense, that he tries to take both sides of many issues–are valid. Kerry’s people, of course, argue that they aren’t. I think a strong case can be made that they are. In either case, Kerry no longer has the profile of an ideal Democratic candidate, as he did when he was winning those primaries. That doesn’t make it impossible for him to win, but it does make it much harder.
Second, the job numbers. On Friday morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the number of jobs increased by 308,000 in March. It also announced upward revisions of previous job numbers, which now indicate that the number of jobs has increased 513,000 in calendar year 2004 and by 759,000 since August 2003.
For the past several years there has been a wide discrepancy between the job numbers from the employers’ survey, which are the numbers we’re talking about and which are generally considered more accurate, and the population survey. The former shows a job loss of more than 2 million since 2000; the latter shows an increase in the number of jobs. Economists of all political stripes cannot explain this discrepancy, which is out of line with previous history. Now it appears that the discrepancy is being narrowed, and that the employers’ survey is reflecting the job growth shown in the population survey.
Democrats have naturally been concentrating on the job numbers from the employers’ survey, which have been the one negative economic statistic during a period of economic growth. Now they have lost some of their talking points. The March figure suggests an annual job growth of 3.6 million jobs–more than enough to wipe out the apparent job loss of 2 million. That’s no guarantee: The month-to-month job numbers are notoriously volatile and subject to not just one but two subsequent revisions. But in recent months those revisions have all been upward. John Kerry will certainly not stop talking about job losses. But George W. Bush will be able to talk about job increases now.
Will we look back eight months from now at this week’s poll numbers and job numbers and say that was when the election was decided? It’s possible. But there are seven months to go, and many more numbers will be coming in, and many more things will happen. Let’s just say it has not been a good week for John Kerry.
