Entries for March 11, 2006

Looking back on 1994

In the lead on my U.S. News column on the House elections, I noted that I was the first writer in the national press to write, in July 1994, that the Republicans had a serious chance of winning a majority in the House elections that November. I noted in that article that three incumbent U.S. House Democrats, competent members who had won at least one election and who had no scandal problems, were trailing Republican challengers in polls. It's highly unusual for an incumbent House member to trail a challenger in any poll; usually the incumbent's higher party identification insures a higher percentage, since the lesser-known challenger is not likely to have corralled even all of his own party's supporters. I noted also that there were a lot of serious Republican challengers out there and that President Bill Clinton's job approval rating was not very good.

But there were other factors that guided my analysis.