Will Rudy Split the GOP?
It's a coalition that has long been the envy of the Democratic Party: the dependable Republican conglomerate of fiscal, social, and national security conservatives. The unity of GOP Inc. has been the key to electoral success, and Republicans know it. Only now, the once predictable alliance is on the verge of unraveling, largely because of one unruly presidential candidate-Rudy Giuliani. He's pro-abortion rights, pro-gun control, and pro-gay civil rights. He's been married three times and is publicly feuding with his children. And, by the way, he's in the top tier in the polls.
All of which is enough to drive social conservatives crazy. Never mind that some fiscal conservatives respect Giuliani; in fact, the conservative Club for Growth last week gave him a rave review on his business record as New York City's mayor. That didn't stop the party's cultural warriors from grousing loudly. "Economic conservatives seem to be saying we're codependent on them, saying our issues are not important," sniffs Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a large Christian conservative group. "They seem to think we'll fall in line and support their candidate. Well, they're wrong. ... We have a lot of places to go. We can go shopping."
That's not an empty threat if you're a member of the Giuliani camp. After all, your candidate invested a bunch of time in trying to convince his more religious brethren that he's at least acceptable. What about federal judges? He says he'd appoint "strict constructionists," which is a backdoor way of winking at the antiabortion forces. And about a month ago, at the first GOP presidential debate, he simply shrugged when asked how he would feel if Roe v. Wade were repealed. That would be "OK," he said; then again, he added, it would be "OK" if it remained on the books, too. Last week, Giuliani finally decided to come clean and look a tad less craven-stating his pro-abortion rights views as a natural extension of the nation's "big tent" social agenda. "There are people, millions and millions of Americans, who are of as good conscience as we are, who make a different choice about abortion," he said during yet another GOP debate in South Carolina. "You can respect other people's views on this."
At least that's what Rudy hopes. His supporters figure the leadership he showed on 9/11 gives him the all-important national security cred. If he's accepted by economic conservatives, they argue, all he needs is some evangelical support and he's got a chance. The bet is that social conservatives care about issues other than abortion. That's the test, says an unaffiliated GOP operative: "As these voters mature, they may also get more incremental. If the candidate supports 80 percent of what you want, maybe you can just swallow and go with it."
Immoral. Not if you're James Dobson, the head of the religious conservatives in Focus on the Family. Even beyond abortion, he considers Rudy to be, well, immoral, and, worst of all, "the darling of the media." Giuliani's private life, Dobson says, is a disqualifier. "Unlike some other Republican presidential candidates, Giuliani appears not to have remorse for cheating on his wife." (Paging Newt Gingrich, who at least apologized for his philandering!) Dobson even posted a clear signal to his flock: "I cannot-and will not-vote for Rudy Giuliani in 2008." Indeed, he adds, if the choice is between either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani, "I will either cast my ballot for an also-ran or ... not vote in a presidential election for the first time in my adult life."
That kind of threat is a killer. Cultural conservatives may account for as much as 40 percent of the GOP primary vote, and Perkins warns they're not party loyalists. "The emerging generation doesn't have a special affinity for the Republican Party," he says. "They came into politics out of a concern for the preservation of human life, and they will never put that aside."
Surely that factored into Mitt Romney's decision a couple of years ago to change his pro-abortion rights position to antiabortion, no matter what he says now. After all, social conservatives are key to the Republican base-and possibly one quarter of the vote in the general election. "Rudy splits the coalition in the most fundamental way imaginable," says a Romney strategist. "Without social conservatives, we are a minority party."
Unless, of course, Republicans decide there's something more important than orthodoxy. Like getting elected.
This story appears in the May 28, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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