Too Soon to Leave
Millions would follow the 2 million refugees who have already spilled out of Iraq. Kurdistan could declare independence, provoking Turkey-a NATO ally-to intervene. Oil prices would rocket. Extremists like the anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr would have enhanced capacity for mischief. In such a failed state, still riven by sectarian violence, Iraq would serve as a launching pad for al Qaeda terrorist operations throughout the region. Such a famous victory for America's two biggest enemies, Iran and al Qaeda, would render America's broader war on terrorism very much more difficult, if not unwinnable. This is an enemy who will strive to follow America home.
It might be argued that my sketch is overdrawn, that Iraqis will learn to live together and deal in their own way with alien terrorists. But if they can't do that when supported by the world's most powerful military, what chances are there when they are left on their own? And even if there is a smaller probability of the horrific consequences I have suggested, it still remains a chance that can't be taken. The concern to bring the troops home and reduce our casualties is wholly understandable, but the risks make it impossible right now.
What is missing from the public dialogue here at home is an honest recognition of these abiding American interests in Iraq. The Democrats believe that public dismay over the war will bring political gain; the Republicans think they win if they can paint the Democrats as doing anything to thwart our soldiers' efforts. Both parties are playing an all-or-nothing political game, sacrificing the opportunity to develop the necessary bipartisan support for the long war against Islamist extremists. Every day around the world there is fresh evidence of their evil designs. It is not a struggle that will be won on the quick or on the cheap, or on the basis of domestic politics.
Until we understand this, who can feel secure?
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