Rudy Runs the Rapids
The 2008 marathon has begun in double quick time. It is disconcerting to be so far ahead of where we normally are in presidential elections, but the political reality today is that the clusters of primaries, rivers of funding, and bookings of TV spots and experts are all on fast forward. I will be discussing the main contenders in this space, but one has to start with the contender who has come out, in the words of the Civil War cavalry Gen. Nathan Bedford Forrest, "firstest with the mostest."
Rudy Giuliani.
To everyone's surprise, Giuliani has been dominating the Republican preference in virtually every poll. He may lose some of the luster following two little news bombs that came too late for the pollsters—that Giuliani had indeed been briefed on serious questions about the disgraced Bernard Kerik before appointing him police commissioner and that if elected he may have Mrs. Judy Giuliani sit in on his cabinet meetings. Still, Giuliani has had a substantial cushion: 16 points at least over John McCain. He has been married three times and has liberal views on gay rights, but he has fudged his stand on gun control and abortion enough to have a 14 percent lead even within the evangelical community.
The former mayor isn't popular just among Republicans, though. He has been leading Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the national polls to such an extent that the Republican Party could begin to think Giuliani could beat any Democrat, but especially Clinton, and make the party competitive in the Northeast and in California, while keeping its electoral advantage in the southern and Rocky Mountain states. That hope is dimmed by the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of March 27 and 28 that shows she has caught up and is ahead by 2 points (even before the two news bombs).
Law and order. The key question for the nomination is how Giuliani is able to assuage the fears of social conservatives. It's a question of priorities. Conservatives are willing to support Giuliani because he can win, because he is a "keep us safe" leader on security and terrorism, and because he is a bedrock conservative on issues like crime, welfare, and fiscal policy. Then there's his opposition to the therapy culture of the New York Times and the American Civil Liberties Union, which conservatives feel is at the core of our liberal culture.
While many Republicans differ with Giuliani on the social issues, only a small percentage would disqualify him on those grounds alone. A more nuanced objection to Giuliani is that while voters now think positively of him as a leader, they know relatively little about him and that he will be vulnerable to negative attack ads deeper into the campaign season.
Those of us in New York knew Giuliani long before he emerged from the tragedy of 9/11 as a national hero and America's Mayor. Prior to that terrible day, Giuliani had shown his capacity for decisive leadership in coming to the rescue of a city that seemed out of control. New York was transformed from the crime capital of America into the safest large city in America.
advertisement