Moscow's 'Soul' Man
Putin's decision to pressure former Soviet states in Russia's "near abroad" strained those relations, but he defends what he sees as Russian interests with ruthless pragmatism, supporting despicable but friendly regimes in Uzbekistan and Belarus and punishing wayward ones in Ukraine and Georgia.
Now the Russian president is making moves in the Middle East that are, to put it charitably, unhelpful. He has sent tactical air-defense missiles to Syria. He invites leaders of Hamas to Moscow in an attempt at diplomatic arbitrage, hoping to emerge as an indispensable mediator in the region. Of greatest concern is Putin's attitude toward Iran. He has resumed arms sales and provided support for the billion-dollar nuclear plant at Bushehr while continuing to oppose effective sanctions or their enforcement to restrain Iran's march toward nuclear enrichment and to sell Tehran high-quality arms, including ground-to-air missiles.
This reveals the extent to which Russia is playing its own game at the cost of its partnership with the West. There is little influence we can have today on Moscow. Soaring oil revenues mean that Russia is no longer the economically weakened country it was a decade ago, in desperate need of help from abroad. If Russia is going to change, it will be from within or not at all.
The West must somehow achieve a delicate diplomatic balance to deal with this new Russia. We must avoid isolating it without seeming to legitimize its bureaucratic authoritarianism. We must continue to speak out against Putin's moves away from democracy and his use of energy to intimidate neighbors. We must selectively find ways of helping developing democracies in Russia's near abroad that want to escape its influence. Russia is, once again, a problem for the West. But at least now the game is not one of nuclear checkmate, as it was in the past.
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