Playing a Real Bad Hand
Yes, the odds are forbidding. But any evaluation of Bush's plan must also look to the consequences of the alternatives-sticking to the same benighted path or pulling out. An American withdrawal would expose 27 million Iraqis to a vicious maelstrom of violence, an explosion of hatreds that will run like a wildfire through the Middle East. Iran would move to take over southern Iraq and its oil reserves and expand its influence in the region, especially on Lebanon and Syria. A resurgent Iran would menace all the Sunni Arab countries. Moderates across the Muslim world would be undermined, extremists empowered. Terrorists could establish a base in Iraq to attack us just as they did from Afghanistan, but this time with major economic resources-nearly 10 percent of the world's known oil reserves are in Iraq. This would give them an operating base not on the periphery of the Middle East but in its heart. The Kurds, meanwhile, could declare their independence, attracting millions of their brethren in Syria and Iraq, risking a war with Turkey.
How the American venture in Iraq fares will determine the direction of the global war on terrorism. Arab governments are convinced that Iran is banking on a forced U.S. withdrawal because so much of the public and so many in Congress don't fully understand the ramifications of a defeat in Iraq. Many are justly skeptical that Iraqis can end the sectarian violence after four years of failure. But President Bush is right about the stakes. We cannot just turn our backs on Iraq and hope for the best.
Because of the terrible mismanagement of the war, alas, the president will have a tough time persuading the American people and the Congress that they should trust his new team finally to get it right. The fundamentals have not changed. Americans will still have to do the fighting and the dying if Iraq's leaders continue their pernicious ways of feuding and failing.
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