A Matter of Timing
The Bush administration, supported by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, is to be applauded for not joining the grandstanding for an unconditional cease-fire. It has been realistic in demanding a cease-fire that will last, as part of a package that includes control by the Lebanese Army, in conjunction with a multinational force, substantial in terms of size and enforcement powers.
An immediate cease-fire would be no more than a sham, a breathing space allowing Iran to equip Hezbollah with bigger and better missiles that would wreak havoc in a few years' time on Tel Aviv and cause even greater civilian casualties. After all, when Israel pulled out of southern Lebanon six years ago, handing back what had been a buffer zone, the land was immediately seized by Hezbollah as a launching pad for attacks and renewed hostilities, despite Resolution 1559, which had no enforcement mechanism and turned out to be just words on a piece of paper. This must not be repeated. And there must be a recognition that if these international mechanisms fail, Israel has the right to enforce them unilaterally--including the right to destroy weapons shipments to Hezbollah, prevent the return of terrorists to the border area, and halt the construction by Hezbollah of military fortifications.
Another false peace, like the 1993 and 1996 cease-fire agreements with Hezbollah, would be a betrayal of those who have died--and all those who will die in the future if Hezbollah's threat is not eliminated. It must lose its capacity to take over Lebanon, given its genocidal ambitions as expressed by Nasrallah in 2002 when he said, "If they [Jews] all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide." There is, too, an important issue of perception. Hezbollah must not come out of this with even a perceived victory. Otherwise, the Muslim Brotherhoods in Egypt and Jordan, as well as other jihadists, will look to Iran for leadership and to Hezbollah for operational assistance. Over time this will pose an existential question for Israel and create still more havoc for the Middle East. If Israel is seen as victorious, Palestinian extremists will be weakened and Syria, and possibly Iran, might be forced to reappraise their approach. Rarely have the stakes been higher.
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