Good Things Take Time
These states all face a demographic tsunami: Roughly half the Arab world is under 25, and these young people will need 100 million jobs over the next few decades. Economic growth of that scale requires a market economy, which in turn requires the rule of law, pluralism, property rights, a public life for women, and accountability. Such reforms can be achieved only at the expense of the entrenched elites--the hereditary monarchs, the perpetual presidents, and the revolutionary mullahs. These men will use their security forces to quell the opposition while using their state treasuries to buy off certain sectors of their societies in the hope of avoiding the kind of upheaval seen in Iran, where the shah's draconian policies united all the opposition forces.
Our strategy to push for democratization is admirable. But let's recognize that the social and cultural conditions of the Middle East mean it will take time. We will have to be patient--and resolute--as the region absorbs and develops the essential political values of freedom of speech, human rights, and the rule of law.
The basis for optimism lies with the awareness of the Arab people of the backwardness and poverty into which their countries have fallen when compared not only with their own glorious past but with the progress other parts of the world have made. With luck, such comparisons will prompt them to ask the question, How did we get into this mess, and how do we get out?
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