New Europe vs. Old
But Blair's U-turn makes it less likely the constitution will ever be adopted. The June negotiations may fail (though Blair's U-turn gives him more leverage). Other nations may reject it in referendums before Britain votes (EU rules require unanimity). Or Blair may turn out to be mistaken in his faith that he can turn opinion around. Or, an outside chance but a real chance for the first time since Blair took office in 1997, the Conservatives under their new leader, Michael Howard, could win the next general election; recent polls have shown them running even with Labor (still, district lines favor Labor).
The EU constitution was not one of the issues Blair and George W. Bush discussed on April 16 in Washington. But it is an issue in which the United States has a stake: An EU dominated by Old Europe would likely be a permanent adversary on foreign and economic policy. Thanks for the U-turn, Tony.
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