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Why the presidential race has begun so early
But close behind as a motivating factor may be a basic miscalculation about the modern primary process. Much of this early activity is based on the traditional belief that success in Iowa and New Hampshire depends on early and relentless organizing. That was the model Jimmy Carter employed to catapult from obscurity to the White House in 1976.
The value of early organizing in Iowa and New Hampshire, though, has steadily diminished as television advertising has grown more important to the outcome in both states over the past 20 years. If anything, some GOP operatives believe, candidates who start this early risk wearing out their welcome by the time the voters actually go to the polls. In 1996, for instance, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm got off to a fast start in the Republican race but fell out of contention early in the actual balloting. By contrast, Forbes--who didn't enter the 1996 race until five months before the New Hampshire primary--initially received a huge benefit from seeming fresh when the other contenders appeared stale. "Candidates tend to get overly ripe," says Jill Hanson, Dole's political director in 1996.
Any of the early-starting candidates doubting Hanson's warning might want to look carefully at Iowa, where the state Republican Party is already hoping to recruit some of the less visible possibilities--such as Elizabeth Dole or Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating--to its big party dinner next June. "It's not like Lamar and these people can't win," says Eric Kahle, the state party's spokesman, "but it would be nice to get some new energy in here."
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