Tracking Saddam's Network
Terrorism
Seven years ago, as an American-led coalition began its air attack against Iraq, Saddam Hussein dispatched some 30 terrorist teams around the world to strike at U.S. interests. Disaster was averted by a combination of U.S. intelligence and Iraqi incompetence.
As war with Iraq looms again, U.S. intelligence agencies are once more on high alert. "If there's a bombing campaign, it's almost certain there will be significant acts of retaliation against the U.S.," says Larry Johnson, who served as a deputy director of the State Department's counterterrorism office during the gulf war. Among the likely scenarios: car bombs, assassinations, and hostage taking. Most at risk are "soft" targets, such as U.S. companies and executives abroad. The State Department has warned American citizens overseas "to exercise greater than usual caution." Inside the United States, the FBI is giving priority to investigations of suspected Iraqi agents, and has obtained from the Immigration and Naturalization Service a list of several hundred Iraqi students in the United States. Another worry is that the United States might not get the level of cooperation it had during the gulf war, when governments around the world expelled some 100 Iraqi diplomats and suspected terrorists.
One top counterterrorism official says he is convinced that Iraq already has dispatched new terrorist teams, though there is disagreement within the intelligence community about the evidence for this conclusion.
Counterterrorism experts say that Iraq's potential for striking American targets has diminished since the gulf war, when much of its intelligence network was destroyed. Further damage was done to that apparatus in 1993 after an Iraqi attempt to kill former President George Bush with a car bomb in Kuwait. The United States responded with a barrage of 23 Tomahawk missiles against the headquarters of the Iraqi intelligence service in Baghdad. Also, terrorist groups long backed by Iraq--such as the Abu Nidal organization--now are torn by infighting or are no longer active.
Groups sympathetic to Iraq may be more dangerous than Saddam Hussein's own terrorists. The gulf war sparked some 200 terrorist attacks, most by anti-American organizations not backed by Iraq. Among those on watch lists today are Dev Sol, a Marxist band in Turkey that murdered an American during the gulf war, and the Islamic extremist movement Hamas, which last week threatened new attacks on Israel should the United States strike Iraq.
Mass distraction. With fewer resources for terror, there is concern Saddam may turn to weapons of mass destruction. Even poorly delivered chemical or biological agents could provoke panic, prompting one CIA analyst to dub them "weapons of mass distraction." Most experts think this is an unlikely scenario, given the powerful American response such use would likely draw. Even at the height of the gulf war, when Saddam's own fate was uncertain, his terrorists were armed with decidedly conventional weapons: dynamite, plastic explosives, and rifles.
Counterterrorism officials hope for a replay of their success during the gulf war. "The system worked like it was supposed to," says Johnson. Each of the 30-odd terrorist teams sent by Baghdad consisted of two to three Iraqis disguised as business executives, according to counterterrorism officials. Iraq also shipped automatic weapons, explosives, and timers in diplomatic pouches to embassies overseas. But most of the Iraqi agents were amateurish and easily detected. One big mistake by Baghdad: Iraqi intelligence gave the agents passports with consecutive numbers, allowing the CIA to alert governments and track the operatives around the world. At least a half-dozen Iraqi teams were simply turned away at airports. Two men who did get through accidentally blew themselves up in the Philippines before they could bomb a U.S. cultural center in Manila. Most impressive was the record inside America's borders. Despite 200 terrorist attacks during the gulf war, none took place in the United States--a record Americans no doubt would be grateful to see again.
This story appears in the March 2, 1998 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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