Girding for 'Implosion'
North Korea may be collapsing. The risk of conflict isn't
Peace is hell. Those are worst-case scenarios being evaluated by military planners paid to prepare for catastrophe. But even optimistic scenarios contain troubling implications that South Koreans have yet to come to terms with. If north and south were to reunite peacefully, that would most likely set millions of refugees flowing south in search of food. The south could try to regulate the flow, but "it is hard to imagine gradual integration, when any Korean can claim Republic of Korea citizenship," says Nicholas Eberstadt, a Korea expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. U.S. commanders in Korea say responsibility for humanitarian aid would fall to South Korean forces and private aid groups, though they acknowledge the inevitable involvement of U.S. troops to provide logistical support. One American analyst in Seoul says the South Koreans "have not devoted much attention to what's going to happen"--which means U.S. troops could get more involved in a humanitarian crisis than anticipated.
Then there is the financial cost of a reunified Korea, which almost makes the perpetuation of the 44-year hostile standoff seem desirable. Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics estimates that reunification could cost $1 trillion, nearly twice the south's annual economic output--"a figure so large as to be infeasible," he wrote in a recent article in Foreign Affairs. Even with generous foreign aid, that would entail severe new taxes and hardships for South Koreans just becoming accustomed to prosperity.
To grasp the financial implications of reunification, South Korean officials have begun to analyze the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990, which caused serious strains even though it took place under much more favorable circumstances. East Germany had only one fourth the population of West Germany, whereas North Korea's population is half that of the south. West Germany was a wealthier country than South Korea, and East Germany's infrastructure was not a shambles, as North Korea's is.
Instead of dealing with the messy and costly aftermath of North Korea's collapse, Noland suggests, it may actually be in the south's interest to extend life support to its cross-border foe by encouraging foreign investment there and by discouraging or even prohibiting North Koreans from coming south.
"Four-party" talks between the two Koreas, China, and the United States are aimed at negotiating a peaceful end to the Korean stalemate, but the talks, which nominally began this summer, have already bogged down over North Korean objections to the agenda for the discussions. No new meetings are likely until sometime next year.
Meanwhile, other events could intervene. Kim could be assassinated or flee the country, although intelligence officials don't know of any backup plan for exile abroad. Or, Kim's ruling body could muddle along indefinitely--even as the population sinks ever deeper into famine and misery.
[Map is not available.] State of collapse North Korea's sinking economy could be the spark that ignites war.
GDP growth rates: -3.7 percent GNP per capita: $910 Defense spending: 27 percent of GNP Population: 23.5 million
GDP growth rate: 7.1 percent GNP per capita: $10,548 Defense spending: 3 percent of GNP Population: 45.7 million
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