Operation Restore Hope
Feeding the hungry in Somalia may be the easy part for America. Getting out may be tougher
General Aidid, for instance, is in financial trouble, and his sudden endorsement of American intervention may be the result of pressure from businessmen backers who feel that the profits to be made from an unimpeded relief operation will be greater than those they are currently reaping.
Samatar suggests that the U.N. will have to base any new Somali consensus on local clan elders, the traditional indigenous leadership that has been badly weakened by two decades of dictatorship. Samatar says the United States and the U.N. could help relegitimize these leaders by using them to help distribute food. Samatar also worries that Islamic mullahs, who U.S. officials say are receiving support from Iran, "could whip up a frenzy against the Christian invaders." To counter that, he argues, the U.N. must also bring more moderate religious leaders into any political negotiations.
A first step? U.N. officials may have taken the first step toward orchestrating a political reconciliation last week, with a long-planned meeting in Ethiopia between relief agencies and representatives of some 20 Somali clans and nearly a dozen political factions. Neither Aidid nor his principal rival for control of Mogadishu, self-proclaimed Somali Interim President Ali Mahdi Mohamed, showed up, but each sent representatives. It was the largest meeting of Somali notables since the crisis began, and CARE Executive Director Philip Johnston, who traveled to Addis Ababa, described it as "a very important first step."
Although he supports intervention, Johnston, who will be overseeing the U.N. relief effort from Mogadishu, warns that it will take months to stabilize the political situation in Somalia. "There are very few societies that have disintegrated to the degree this one has," he warns. If the Americans pull out too quickly, Johnston cautions, "the country will just revert back to chaos." But it may not be easy to know when it's time to leave.
Anarchic Somalia U.S.-led coalition forces will need to create a secure and stable environment for the delivery of relief supplies before they can be withdrawn. But Somalia's complex clan structure and social disintegration could mean that getting out will take longer than expected.
Somalia at a glance
Population: 6 mil. (est.)
Real GDP per capita: $861
Adult literacy: 24 pct.
US Units slated for deployment Troops
15th Marine Expeditionary Unit 1,800 1st Marine Expeditionary Force 16,000 Army 10th Mountain Division (Light) 5,000
USN&WR--Basic data: U.S. Dept. of Defense, CIA, United Nations, International Committee of the Red Cross, CARE.
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