Clinton Breaks Out
Bush's economic nightmare George Bush can find little cheer in history's trend lines. Real income growth during his first three years in office hit a historic low, and anemic income growth usually spells defeat for incumbent presidents. To make matters worse for Bush, since assuming the presidency he has watched as unemployment jumped in the 10 largest electoral states (current national average: 7.8 percent) and real disposable income per capita dropped in nine of these key battlegrounds.
Real income growth during first three years of office
[First Term Second Term] Truman 3.5 pct Eisenhower 4.1 pct 2.4 pct Kennedy 4.3 pct Johnson 4.7 pct Nixon 3.6 pct Nixon/Ford 1.7 pct Carter 3.5 pct Reagan 3.5 pct 2.3 pct Bush 1.0 pct
Note: Percent change, compound annual rate Basic data: USN&WR--Merrill Lynch, WEFA Group, U.S. Depts. of Commerce and Labor
Election year economics
Election Year Pocket Book Index Election Indication Outcome
1980 -0.3 pct Challenger favored Reagan trounces _ Carter
1984 6.2 pct Incumbent favored Reagan landslide
1988 5.6 pct Incumbent favored Bush defeats Dukakis
favored
1992 2.2 pct Challenger favored Clinton beats Bush?
Note: Pocketbook Index is growth in real disposable income during the four quarters prior to presidential election. Median Pocketbook Index growth since 1948 is 3.9 percent. 1992 figure is estimate.
Basic data: USN&WR--Merrill Lynch, WEFA Group, U. S. Depts. of Commerce and Labor
State Unemployment Rate Personal Income
January 1989 June 1992 Percent change
California 5.0 pct 9.5 pct -2.2 Florida 6.0 pct 8.5 pct -2.5 Illinois 5.8 pct 8.6 pct -1.5 Michigan 7.0 pct 8.8 pct -2.7 New Jersey 3.8 pct 9.2 pct -1.4 New York 4.9 pct 9.2 pct -0.1 North Carolina 3.6 pct 6.5 pct -0.1 Ohio 5.7 pct 7.6 pct -1.6 Pennsylvania 4.3 pct 7.6 pct -0.4 Texas 7.1 pct 8.2 pct 1.4
Note: Personal income numbers are per capita, adjusted for inflation and represent first quarter 1989 to fourth quarter 1991.
Basic Data: USN&WR--Merrill-Lynch, U.S. Depts. of Commerce and Labor
advertisement
