Clinton Breaks Out
The most revolutionary development in this season of discontent is that the campaign of 1992 now looks like a traditional presidential race. Led by nominee Bill Clinton, Democrats virtually levitated out of Madison Square Garden last week, full of righteousness and proclamations of unity--and miraculously ahead in the polls. But no one was taking Oval Office measurements because the traditional post-convention lift was just too unconventional. The Clinton-George Bush matchup was hatched after an extraordinary 24-hour burst of developments bound to go down in the annals of political timing: Just as Clinton began to enjoy a welcome surge, billionaire presidential prospect Ross Perot abruptly pulled himself out of the race. And in an instant, the double whammy shifted the contest from a triangle of delicate political permutations to pure hand-to-hand combat.
The showdown now focuses on Perot's political malcontents. Furious at George Bush's do-nothingism "up there in Washington" and dismissive of Clinton's integrity and ability to lead, this dispirited crowd will vacillate and no doubt choose to park in the safe middle ground of "undecided" during the next four months. Yet preconvention polls showed that the first breakaway Perotists were largely Democratic sympathizers heading home to Clinton's camp well before the desertion of their Dallas hero.
Perot's sotto voce endorsement of the "revitalized" Democrats was warmly welcomed. Clinton's aides scrambled to sign up every Perot state coordinator they could and scored a coup when New York Perot boss Matthew Lifflander told a Clinton rally: "We're here to begin a transition from being 'People for Perot' to Perot-people for Clinton." Bush hardly sat still. He beseeched Perotists for support: "Don't assume that without a protest vote, there is no vote at all." And Perot himself kept the pot boiling by refusing to rule out a re-entry into the race during an appearance on ABC-TV's "20/20" and saying that his supporters were planning a big rally in Washington on Labor Day.
Suddenly, the campaign that once wanted Perot to stay in for the long haul had a new spin: Perot's exit "makes it easier for us to get out our message of change," argued Clinton-campaign strategist James Carville. And he may be right. One private poll specifically designed to test the sentiment of Perot's backers before his withdrawal showed that 74 percent want fundamental change in the country, compared with 21 percent who want proven experience in the presidency. Clinton ran second to Perot among those seeking change. And asked to specify what change they sought, by far the largest segment said the poor state of the economy would determine their vote.
Uphill struggle. Overall, the economic-political equation is not favorable to Bush. Donald Straszheim, chief economist for Merrill Lynch, calculates that since World War II voters have not returned an incumbent president to the Oval Office unless real disposable income grew at least 3.9 percent in the four quarters preceding the election. But real disposable income over the past 12 months has edged up a measly 1.9 percent, and Straszheim expects that rate to slip lower before November. Only Jimmy Carter, who presided over falling incomes in 1980, was hamstrung by such bad economic data in an election year. "History says this is an uphill struggle for [Bush]," argues Straszheim.
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