Protesters: No-Show or Go-Slow
Republican incumbents back home for recess aren't feeling the antiwar heat just yet
The campaign is independent from, though certainly not discouraged by, the Democratic Party, and it brings together a broad array of left-leaning interest groups, including advocacy group USAction and the Service Employees International Union. The campaign has $12 million budgeted, roughly half from MoveOn.org and SEIU and the rest from high-roller Democrats.
Headquarters keeps close tabs on everything from the number of yard signs distributed (26,600 and counting nationally) to the number of times a volunteer has bird-dogged a target (115 times). The campaign has posted more than 200 videos on YouTube—viewed tens of thousands of times—including one of activists asking for a public meeting with Sununu. But some of the recent events in New Hampshire and Maine drew only a dozen folks. One recent New Hampshire morning rally was positively a bust. Attendance? Zero. An event outside Collins's office in Bangor recently drew 14 people to hear Mainers Craig and Kathie Cote talk about son Jeremy, who is serving in Iraq. "I'm outraged with her," Craig said of Collins. A few cars honked, volunteers held signs, and a local radio reporter held out a microphone.
Organizers point to few signs of progress. A poll they put out showed their Republican Senate targets in trouble, with an average of only 37 percent of voters saying they'd re-elect the GOP incumbents. And a handful of Republican senators have voiced their frustration over the war, including Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Richard Lugar of Indiana, and Olympia Snowe of Maine. Still, frustration doesn't necessarily beget votes. Among those senators, only Snowe has actually supported legislation calling for troop withdrawal. "I think she was kind of on the fence before we were able to give that last little push," says Justin Costa, the Maine field director. Not surprisingly, Snowe's office says there were many reasons for her vote. Sununu, standing in the parking lot after the Manchester event, says he accepts the activists' "right to express their viewpoint," but he's critical of some of their tactics. "Look, the advertising campaigns that have been run here are funded by big labor," he says. "Everyone understands that. And I think it's unfortunate that they seem very focused on politicizing an issue like Iraq."
Skepticism. Public-opinion watchers, at least in New Hampshire and Maine, are skeptical about the group's impact. "If anything," says Andrew Smith, head of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, "the [television] commercials might have some impact, but the protests are probably having little or no impact." Amy Fried, a University of Maine politics professor, echoes that thought but also notes that strategy must be tempered by the "niceness factor" in Maine's politics. Rowdy protests might not work, she says, because "people have to be each other's neighbors at the end of the day."
The summer campaign will culminate on August 28 with rallies dubbed "Take a Stand" in every targeted state. The goal in Manchester: attendance of 700 to 1,000. Organizers have invited all of the Republican targets to come. Count Sununu and Collins out. In fact, only one target, Republican Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, says he'll attend. The campaign was slated to end in September, but now organizers will keep going at least through December. "We're going to stick around until the war ends," Matzzie says. Influencing the outcome, though, may be another matter.
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