Home-Front Battles Over a Faraway War
Washington is emptying out for August, but all sides are working overtime to influence the coming debate on Iraq
It seems like just another sleepy summer in Washington. Members of Congress were eager to begin their monthlong recess. Many in the bureaucracy, the lobbying corps, and the media cleared out for some R&R. And President Bush was checking Internet reports on the weather in Crawford, Texas, as he prepared to begin his annual August vacation, chopping cedar and mountain biking at his ranch.
But behind the scenes, it's anything but business as usual. The reason? The looming political showdown over the Iraq war. The issue will take center stage this fall after a mid-September report on conditions in Iraq from Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces there, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, the top civilian official.
All sides are gearing up. White House strategists are mapping an aggressive PR blitz to win over skeptical legislators and voters. The antiwar movement will be similarly busy. And the small army of presidential candidates will be making their own pitches—with most of the Republicans in favor of Bush's policy, all the Democrats against it—to best position themselves for the nomination. "It's going to be a holy war all autumn—and maybe right through to Christmas," says a former senior official in the Reagan White House who informally advises the Bush administration.
Key decisions. But really, the fight has already begun. Even the normally reclusive Vice President Dick Cheney jumped into the fray. In an interview with CNN's Larry King, he compared Bush to iconic leaders of the past. "If you looked simply at public opinion, for example, a lot of the key decisions in our history would never have been pursued or followed through on," Cheney said. "Washington never would have carried through for seven years of the Revolution. Abraham Lincoln would never have stayed with it in order to win the Civil War."
The antiwar movement, which sees the conflict as a historic blunder, has announced plans to turn up the heat on Republican legislators. As those lawmakers return home for the August recess, 60 of them will face protests at their district offices, and some will be trailed by demonstrators. "The tide has turned," says Kate Snyder, field director of Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, "and members must feel a sense of accountability for their votes.... They will either protect America or protect George Bush."
Hardened. Opponents of the war point out that most voters now believe the conflict was a mistake and that the United States should begin withdrawing troops. And Democratic strategists say those views have hardened. A mid-July CBS News/New York Times poll showed that 74 percent of respondents felt U.S. efforts in Iraq were going "somewhat badly" or "very badly," compared with 25 percent who felt they were proceeding "very well" or "somewhat well." Says Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who advises Sen. Barack Obama: "You're not going to move public opinion on Iraq."
But that won't stop all sides from trying. Princeton historian Julian Zelizer says it is part of a long American tradition. "Both sides of a war always use PR," says Zelizer, citing the Korean, Vietnam, and Persian Gulf wars, as a succession of presidents sought to build support and their opponents pushed back hard. But Zelizer adds that today, "events in Iraq are much more powerful" than any propaganda from either side.
The death toll of 78 U.S. troops during the month of July, while tragic, was actually the lowest number since last November, and the news was hailed by administration supporters as evidence that the president's "surge" is working. But this was quickly overshadowed by three bombings in Baghdad that killed at least 75 people on August 1, and the announcement of the partial withdrawal by Iraq's largest Sunni political bloc from the coalition government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Despite such setbacks, the White House is pressing on. Increasingly, Bush advisers are echoing the military commanders in the field in arguing that things are going better in Iraq than the mainstream media are portraying. "We'll be linking up to what they are doing in Baghdad," says a senior administration official. That's partly because the military's credibility is a lot better than the commander in chief's, Bush advisers admit. The White House's goal is to at least keep Republicans on the president's side. "The idea is to firm up the base," says an informal Bush strategist. "We all know that if he can't do that, he won't be able to pursue the war" because support among congressional Republicans will collapse.
Briefings. The Republican National Committee is running a "war room" of sorts, sending out detailed reports to supporters and journalists describing how well the Iraq effort is going. White House Press Secretary Tony Snow has begun using his daily briefings to present slides, charts, and graphs to offer a largely positive view of the conflict. Snow told U.S. News that the mainstream media generally "ignore the accomplishments" of American forces in Iraq as they emphasize negative stories.
For his part, Bush will make a series of speeches around the country to rally support for the war in coming weeks, and he is considering making a prime-time speech to the nation in September. "He's as fully engaged as I've seen him," says a senior administration official. "He's the one with all the energy that keeps us jacked up." Bush, who recently turned 61, doesn't let the endless criticism of the war get him down, and he tries his best to avoid being isolated. "He reads the papers," the official says. "He knows what's going on." And he is said to realize the challenge he faces in turning around public opinion and keeping Congress in line.
But in the end, Bush remains optimistic. He tells friends he is confident the September report will help make his case that the war is worth fighting and will be won—and that he can persuade the nation to persevere.
This story appears in the August 13, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.