Florida's Primary Flap
The new date has ignited an intense political firestorm
Political insiders call it a train wreck waiting to happen, one that could throw the presidential nominating calendar totally off the rails early next year.
The problem is Florida, the state that caused such a furor in 2000 with questionable ballot procedures and legal issues that were eventually resolved, in George W. Bush's favor, by the Supreme Court. This time, the Sunshine State has scheduled its presidential primary for January 29, which potentially violates the rules of both major parties. The Republican National Committee in 2004 declared that no state delegates could be selected before February 5. In 2006, the Democratic National Committee voted to allow a handful of states to join the traditional "first" states of Iowa and New Hampshire in holding caucuses or primaries during the first five weeks of 2008; Florida was not among them. The rules were designed to create order, preserve tradition, and add diversity. But Florida decided to get more attention in the presidential sweepstakes, and that is creating bizarre possibilities. "It's become a crazy process," admits a Democratic strategist.
Penalty play. If Florida holds the January primaries, which have been locked into law by Republican Gov. Charlie Crist and the GOP-controlled Legislature, and the national parties don't relent, the state could lose huge blocs of delegates to both national nominating conventions next summer. Republicans have left wiggle room to review state-by-state primary plans, probably this fall. The Democrats have gone further as disciplinarians, stipulating that any candidate campaigning in a state that violates the rules will be ineligible to win any of the state's delegates. Florida Democrats could have avoided the problem by treating the January vote as a so-called beauty contest, without the power to choose delegates, but they decided to go ahead with a full-fledged primary.
While the GOP ponders its options, the DNC's rules and bylaws panel is scheduled to consider the Florida situation on August 25, and DNC Chairman Howard Dean says the party won't back down. "These are automatic sanctions," says a Democratic strategist close to Dean. "Without these rules, all of the states would start leapfrogging."
The emerging choices will be very tough for the candidates. Several strategists told U.S. News that their candidates may still compete in the Florida primary, even though it might only signal voter preferences, with no actual delegates at stake. That's because winning Florida could be a public-relations bonanza just before the megaprimary on February 5, when at least a dozen states will vote. On the other hand, some campaigns' strategists say it might be better to pass up Florida and focus on states where full slates of delegates are really up for grabs.
There are other potential consequences. Michigan officials say they may follow Florida's lead and move the Michigan caucuses from February 9 to a date in mid- to early January. South Carolina Democrats want to hold the first contest in the South, so they may move their primary earlier than the DNC-endorsed date of January 29. That could trigger a political upheaval, with New Hampshire threatening to move its first-in-the-nation primary from January 22 to a week or more earlier, and Iowa threatening to move its caucuses from January 14, possibly to late December. "It's become a game of chicken," says a Democratic strategist.
In the end, all this may result in nasty fights at next summer's Democratic nominating convention over delegate rosters, credentials, and access. That's exactly what party leaders wanted to avoid when they came up with the current calendar. But Florida politicians had other plans.
This story appears in the August 6, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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