Al Qaeda's Comeback
In a speech today, McConnell did say that there has been good news in the U.S. effort against al Qaeda, particularly the "relatively large number of plots we have been able to thwart" since 9/11. But he offered few details.
There is also an alarming description of the type of attack that al Qaeda's operatives are most interested in staging inside the United States. Unlike the kind of smaller-scale plots seen recently in Europe, such as subway bombings, U.S. intelligence agencies agree that al Qaeda wants its next U.S. attack to be a spectacular one. In particular, operatives want to focus on "prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks, and/or fear among the U.S. population."
And there are other looming concerns. David Shedd, the deputy director of national intelligence for policy, plans, and requirements, says that U.S. intelligence has detected a more active connection between al Qaeda and its new North African affiliate, the al Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb, formerly known as the Salafist Group for Call and Combat, or by its initials in French, GSPC. U.S. News wrote about this group when intelligence officials feared it was at the vanguard of a new wave of al Qaeda franchises and sympathizers.
Today, the two groups have a formal alliance, and Shedd says officials are seeing a "flow" of operatives traveling from North Africa (particularly Algeria and Morocco) to the tribal regions of Pakistan to undergo training at al Qaeda's new compounds. This flow is particularly worrying because al Qaeda's Maghreb group boasts long-standing networks in Europe that could theoretically be used to help operatives infiltrate the United States.
Also striking is the NIE's strong warning about the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah, which has attacked U.S. targets overseas in the past but has been more focused on other targets in recent years. The NIE warns that Hezbollah, which reportedly receives arms and other support from Iran, "may be more likely to consider attacking the homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or Iran."
The NIE is notable for one innovation: It is the first time such an estimate has been drafted with the full participation of both the FBI and Homeland Security Department, as well as other intelligence agencies.
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