On Iraq, President Bush Faces Stirrings of a Revolt
The House GOP leader calls antiwar Republicans 'wimps'
U.S. intelligence agencies are sticking by their pessimistic assessment of last January that Iraq will be hard pressed to make significant political progress anytime soon. Reducing violence, the assessment suggested, was an essential precondition for moving forward, and that isn't happening fast enough. In congressional testimony July 11, Thomas Fingar, the nation's top intelligence analyst, said violence levels could actually increase. "The struggle among and within Iraqi communities over national identity and the distribution of power has eclipsed attacks by Iraqis against the coalition forces as the greatest impediment to Iraq's future as a peaceful, democratic, and unified state," he said. The statement was at odds with White House claims that the greatest threat in Iraq today is al Qaeda.
Iraqi security forces remain unable to function without extensive U.S. support, except for a few isolated units. Beyond simple fighting skills and questions about their loyalty, Iraqi forces also lack basic support systems, including adequate communications and intelligence capabilities.
Risks. Other aspects of the situation are equally discouraging. "Provision of essential public services remains inadequate," Fingar said. "Oil output is below prewar levels, hours of electrical power available have declined and remain far below demand, and inflationary pressures have grown since last year." Still, intelligence officials continue to warn that rapid U.S. withdrawal could provoke even greater violence in Iraq and across the region.
Back home, the wrangling over a $649 billion defense authorization bill has become the focal point of debate over the Iraq war, which is costing at least $10 billion a month. Various amendments, such as Webb's, were designed as part of a Democratic strategy to force Bush to change course. Several senators argued that Bush's troop "surge" has failed and that the increased commitment has pushed the U.S. military to a breaking point. "More and more Republicans have stopped backing the president and have started looking for ways to work with us," says Joe Biden, the Delaware Democrat who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is running for president.
Another impediment to staying the course is the operational constraints on U.S. forces. The military will be unable to sustain the current troop level in Iraq beyond next spring, according to senior Pentagon officials. As of May 2008, they project, the Army will have to start drawing down the number of brigades because there aren't enough troops to replenish fighters in the field. The drawdown may bring the troop level to the presurge plateau of 120,000 or lower, from the current 150,000. The stress on U.S. forces was not helped by another piece of bad news in mid-July: The Army failed to meet its June recruiting goals by about 15 percent in another sign of public disapproval of the war.
With Silla Brush, Anna Mulrine and Kevin Whitelaw
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