The Electoral Map
Demographic changes are putting new states in play
State by state, region by region, there's a new political world out there. The old formulas for winning the White House seem increasingly out of date, and the candidates are scrambling to figure out how to deal with a new, evolving electoral map.
For much of the past generation, national elections were framed by the theories of Richard Nixon, who reinvented Republican politics in 1968 with a "southern strategy" based on negative campaigning against the opposition. Nixon captured the states of the Confederacy, emphasizing "wedge issues," such as promoting "law and order," limiting social change, and catering broadly to what Nixon called "the silent majority." In 1980, Ronald Reagan refined the strategy by moving conservatism closer to majority status with his focus on less government, lower taxes, a strong defense, and standing up to communism. The electoral map fell into line, with Republicans dominating the South and much of the West, in addition to many of America's vast suburbs and rural areas. "Reagan Democrats" left their party in droves, lured by the Great Communicator's push for "family values" and his defense of American exceptionalism. Aside from Bill Clinton's two terms (and even Clinton didn't win a majority of the popular vote in 1992 and 1996), the Democrats became, to many, the party of the big cities and the coasts, and lost the White House in seven of the last 10 elections.
Today, the political landscape seems to be shifting again, in myriad ways. The Republicans, looking to capitalize on a perceived tilt to the right, chose Minneapolis-St. Paul as the site of their national convention next year in the once reliably Democratic state of Minnesota. Similarly, the Democrats picked Denver, in the heart of the increasingly pragmatic and less conservative Rocky Mountain West.
The rapidly growing Rocky Mountain region, in fact, figures prominently in the Democrats' master plan. Demographic shifts, including an influx of pragmatic-minded voters from other states and more-liberal Latino voters, have resulted in big changes in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Each has grown increasingly Democratic at the state and congressional levels and could easily go Democratic in the presidential race. Those four states have a combined total of 29 electoral votes. If they all went Democratic, the party's nominee would no longer need Florida's 27 electoral votes to win the White House. This calculation is being pushed by Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean as he tries to position his party for 2008.
Democratic strategists also hope for a surge of support from Latino voters nationwide. Party leaders say Hispanics will turn increasingly against the GOP because of the recent Senate fight over immigration, in which conservatives favored a crackdown on illegal workers.
The Republicans have more conventional plans. Their strategy focuses on holding the South and border states and conservative rural states in the central part of the country and building an electoral majority outward from there. They consider the upper Midwest fertile territory, notably formerly Democratic states such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
And GOP strategists say California, a Democratic bastion for a generation, could be in play. That's largely because GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has shuffled the deck with his new, moderately conservative but highly pragmatic approach to governing. That style gave Schwarzenegger a big re-election victory last year.
One equation has remained the same. Both parties believe that the midwestern states of Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois, and the traditional swing state of Pennsylvania, are within their grasp, so they will remain battlegrounds.
KEEP AN EYE ON...
California, which has been a Democratic mainstay for nearly a generation. But Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's success has GOP strategists hopeful that it may be in play in 2008.
New York. If New Yorkers Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton are the nominees, expect a battle royal.
This story appears in the July 16, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.