The Candidates
No incumbent. No favorite. Anything could happen
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is making steady progress in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he holds modest leads, but he is still far behind in national polls. He told U.S. News he is considering making a major speech explaining how his Mormon faith would fit into a Romney presidency, since his religion is a source of concern among many conservative Christians.
Then there is Thompson, recognizable to many voters because of his tough-guy movie and TV roles. Thompson has been propelled to the top of the Republican field on the basis of his conservative views, appeal as a Washington outsider, and communication skills, all of which remind some of Ronald Reagan. The GOP race is so unsettled that Thompson is leading in some GOP polls even though he isn't expected to enter the race until later this month.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is also trying to parlay himself as an "ideas candidate" who could inject a more aggressive conservatism into the GOP race. He says he might enter the field this fall if other candidates don't adopt his ideas.
On the other side, Gore's warnings about climate change have vindicated him among many Democrats since his loss of the presidency to George W. Bush in 2000. Gore is consistently in the top three or four Democratic candidates, even though he isn't in the race.
Finally, there's Michael Bloomberg, the wealthy New York mayor. Bloomberg recently announced he was leaving the Republican Party and becoming an independent, fueling speculation that he is poised to run an independent presidential campaign next year. Bloomberg could capitalize on deep voter dissatisfaction with the partisanship and bickering in official Washington. Only about 30 percent of voters think President Bush is doing a good job, slightly better than Congress. Bloomberg, a billionaire, could pay for his own campaign, so he could enter the race late and run as an effective, nonpartisan manager of a large and complex municipal government.
There are cautionary tales, of course. The last serious third-force candidate was Ross Perot in 1992. He won 19 percent of the vote but didn't carry a single state. Frank Luntz, the GOP pollster who advised Perot that year, says voter anger at Washington is starting to exceed the levels of '92. This means there is a clear opening for an independent candidate—or a spoiler who could throw the race to one major—party candidate or the other.
KEEP AN EYE ON...
John Edwards, who has staked his candidacy on early Democratic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he fails, his campaign is most likely over. Mitt Romney has a similar "springboard" strategy in the GOP race, hoping early victories will propel him into the megastates that hold their primaries on February 5.
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