Fanning the Flames of Discontent
Why the turmoil in Pakistan should worry Washington
Reassess. Some U.S. officials are also reassessing Musharraf's performance. U.S. intelligence agencies warn that al Qaeda and the Taliban have reconstituted safe havens in the badlands of western Pakistan. "I haven't seen anything since 9/11 that suggests this guy will do stuff of his own volition that's in our interests," says a U.S. official. "He always does the bare minimum." For example, despite Musharraf's pledges to crack down on radical religious schools, U.S.and British officials have had to point out specific madrasahs that were producing graduates primed for jihadist acts.
Even more serious, Pakistan's vast tribal regions have largely been ceded to religious extremists and Taliban elements (box, Page 26). Musharraf is growing increasingly dependent on the country's religious parties for support. Many Pakistanis point to his reluctance to crack down on a radical mosque in the normally placid capital of Islamabad where fundamentalists have been mounting a vigilante campaign for the past six months to impose strict Islamic law. Followers of Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, have occupied government buildings and kidnapped police officers and alleged prostitutes. The crisis came to a head last week when militants and police clashed in battles that killed at least 19 people. Afterward, security forces caught the mosque's leader, Maulana Abdul Aziz, trying to flee in a woman's burka and high heels and paraded him on television. More than 1,000 students have surrendered, but the footage of Aziz, still clad in women's clothing, enraged his supporters, and a group of die-hards remained holed up in the mosque.
Pakistani security forces have been treading carefully, in part because a bloody crackdown could further weaken Musharraf's standing. But the spectacle of nightly gun battles and a prolonged siege in Islamabad has been unsettling for western governments, which harbor a perpetual fear that Pakistan's arsenal of nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of radical groups. Pakistan's security forces have a long history of cooperation with Islamic extremists who operate in Kashmir (against the Indian government) and Afghanistan (including the Taliban). But this latest crisis has also been unsettling for Pakistan's generals, who have always viewed themselves as the main guarantor of the country's stability. "The military uses the Islamist groups to its advantage, but they would never give them the initiative to set military policy," says Hasan-Askari Rizvi, a visiting Pakistani scholar at Johns Hopkins University.
At least in the short term, most observers expect Musharraf to find some way to remain in power, which will comfort U.S. officials uneasy about who might replace him. So far, the Bush administration has conspicuously declined to lay out specific criteria to ensure a fair election. Many analysts believe Musharraf will end up forging an alliance with Bhutto. But there is little sign that he is ready to make that compromise. "We have kept the doors of dialogue open, but we have been very disappointed by the lack of any concrete progress toward having a level playing field for all political parties," says Bhutto. "With elections around the corner, we certainly feel time is running out."
With Aamir Latif and Philip Smucker in Pakistan
advertisement
