Fundraising: the Expectations Game
The presidential campaigns are playing one of their favorite games—going on spin patrol to get the best publicity possible for their latest fund-raising totals. The second financial quarter ends tomorrow, and what the candidates have raised over the past three months will become endless fodder for the punditocracy and the campaigns themselves. But it's probably best to discount much of what the spinners are saying now and wait for the real numbers to come in. Here's a voter's guide on what to look for over the next several days:
Will Democratic frontrunner Hillary Rodham Clinton, the senator from New York and former first lady, surge to a clear lead in the money race? Her advisers have been surprisingly optimistic in public—raising expectations that she could exceed the $26 million she collected in the first quarter. This could backfire if she falls short, especially if Illinois Sen. Barack Obama exceeds her number. He nearly matched Clinton three months ago.
How many donors does each candidate have? This will give an indication of grass roots support and provide a good indicator of future success, because the smaller contributors can give again later, creating a fund-raising reservoir for the future. In the first quarter, Obama reported 100,000 donors, more than anyone else. Can he do it again?
Will Democrat John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, raise enough to maintain his credibilty as a top contender? He raised $14 million in the first quarter, considerably behind Clinton and Obama, but enough to run a strong campaign.
There are signs that Democrat Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, might finish better than expected. The question is whether Richardson and other second- and third-tier candidates will raise enough to maintain their credibility as serious candidates. And will anyone fall so short that they drop out? That's a question for the Republicans, too.
On the GOP side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney isn't likely to match or exceed his total of $21 million in the first quarter, which put him first among Republican candidates. But if he comes close, he will get another big boost.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the leader in national polls of GOP voters, has been slipping lately; he needs a strong cash total to show that he still deserves front-runner status.
Arizona Sen. John McCain has run into big trouble over his stands on immigration and other issues, and he isn't expected to do well in the second quarter. This will only make his job more difficult as he tries to scramble back into contention.
Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee hasn't formally entered the race so expectations for his fund-raising are quite low. If he manages to raise several million dollars for a campaign that doesn't yet exist, he will score a PR win. Thompson is expected to enter the race in July.
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