All Agog Over Thompson
The former senator and veteran actor faces his audition for the role of a lifetime
He has a resonant baritone voice and an imposing physical presence. He has strong conservative credentials and a background in both government and the private sector. He has proven communication skills honed by his work on television and in the movies.
If Fred Thompson sounds like the conservative candidate from central casting—a latter-day Ronald Reagan—that's exactly the image he wants to project as he prepares to enter the race for the White House, probably in the next few weeks. Thompson's plan is to make as big a splash as he can, to generate both a tidal wave of positive publicity and an outpouring of campaign contributions that would propel him to the top of the GOP heap. Adds a Republican strategist who is ready to join Thompson's bandwagon: "If he gets into the race, as we all expect, he will be a strong contender from Day 1."
In many ways, he already is. The latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey finds that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani holds a slight lead for the GOP presidential nomination, with 26 percent of Republicans supporting his candidacy. But not-yet-a-candidate Thompson has risen to 21 percent while Arizona Sen. John McCain dropped to 12 percent. Other polls show Giuliani in the lead with about 30 percent; Thompson and McCain tied at about 18 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at or just below 10 percent.
Charisma. Not bad for a man who has no state-by-state organization, no campaign treasury, and no long-time national base in the GOP. But many conservatives, even though they have only a rudimentary idea of Thompson's positions, suspect that he has enough Reagan-style charisma to unite the party more effectively than anyone else in the field.
All this has made Fred Dalton Thompson, 64, the former senator from Tennessee, the hottest property in the Republican race, at least for now. But things will get a lot tougher for him. "If he gets in, he will need to raise a bundle of money very quickly to maintain his momentum and maintain his credibility," says a potential backer with strong ties to Thompson's home state. Political professionals say each of the top candidates must raise $25 million in the second quarter to maximize credibility, and the lesser candidates will need $5 million each to be taken seriously.
A senior GOP analyst adds that Thompson will need to quickly set himself apart from his rivals with clear talk on the major issues, from immigration to the war in Iraq. "People are looking for someone who will talk straight and not give them the wishy-washy stuff that comes from Washington," he says. "He will need to take bold stands."
Whether he does that is anyone's guess, but Thompson's looming candidacy is already draining support away from the other major candidates, mostly from McCain. "More than anything, it's because of McCain's mistakes," says a spokesman for a rival campaign. "He is on the wrong side of the issues that primary voters care about, especially immigration." McCain backs a compromise bill unveiled in the Senate several weeks ago, putting him at odds with many conservatives who view the legislation as too lenient on workers who entered the United States illegally. In fact, stopping illegal immigration is one of the most emotional issues within the GOP. This has resurrected past conservative concerns about McCain that while he is a man of conviction, his views frequently run counter to the base of his party. McCain strategists say the race is fluid and his stands on principle will carry him to victory in the end.
Meantime, Thompson's opponents are ready to attack. They say he didn't accomplish much during eight years in the Senate. (He was elected in 1994 to the remaining two years of former Vice President Al Gore's unexpired Senate term and re-elected to a full term in 1996.) His fans say he never enjoyed being in Congress but did so as a form of public service. They point out that Thompson's commitment to government started much earlier: In 1973, at age 30, he was appointed minority counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee, where he served until 1974.
Another line of criticism is that Thompson made large amounts of money lobbying in Washington before and after his time in the Senate—suggesting that he was more of an insider than he is willing to admit. Also, before serving in the Senate, he was a trial lawyer, which many conservatives consider little more than an ambulance chaser. Thompson will also be attacked for supporting the campaign-finance bill sponsored by McCain and Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, which remains unpopular among conservatives. Finally, the skeptics argue that he has no rationale for his candidacy. "He hasn't adequately explained why he wants to be president," says a senior strategist in a rival campaign. Nor has he clarified his main priorities if elected.
TV star. Thompson's surge is based partly on overwhelmingly positive news coverage that casts him as a fresh face, and partly on his fame as a film and TV actor. He has appeared in several movies, including In the Line of Fire, Die Hard 2, and The Hunt for Red October. He most recently played District Attorney Arthur Branch on TV's Law & Order series—a straight-talking, reassuring, tough-minded defender of the public.
What may help Thompson more than anything is rising voter dissatisfaction with the status quo in Washington. The latest CNN/Gallup Poll finds that confidence in Congress has collapsed amid anger among antiwar Democrats over U.S. involvement in Iraq and among conservatives over illegal immigration. Gallup also finds that only 24 percent of Americans approve of Congress's job performance, down 5 points in the past month. President Bush is similarly unpopular.
Disenchantment with both major parties has fueled media interest in an independent campaign for 2008—a notion that got a boost last week when New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced he was no longer a Republican. This set off speculation that he was paving the way for an independent candidacy for president next year.
In some ways, a Bloomberg candidacy and a Thompson run would be feeding off the same voter anger. Pollster Frank Luntz, who advised billionaire Ross Perot during his third-party presidential campaign in 1992, says each man could tap into deep dissatisfaction and portray himself as a reformer and a Washington outsider. "Democrats feel the White House isn't listening," says Luntz. "Republicans feel Congress isn't listening. Everyone is mad at something and looking for an alternative." That's one reason why Election 2008 is so volatile and why Thompson is doing so well. "He doesn't come across as a politician," Luntz says. That may be his most important asset of all.
Fred Thompson at a Glance
Pluses. Thompson looks and talks like a president. Conservatives like his views. The media boost him as "Reaganesque."
Minuses. Not very active as a senator, lags badly in fundraising, lacks experience as a national candidate.
The buzz. Will Fred flash and fade? That question is generating new excitement in the GOP race, but Thompson gives conservatives fresh hope for 2008.