Suddenly, it seems like Deja Vu all over again to liberals
Will Bloomberg do a Nader to Democratic hopes for 2008?
For two days last week, 3,000 liberal activists who converged on the Washington Hilton had partied like it was 2008—a confident and sometimes swaggering celebration of their gathering influence and conviction that by November next year a Democrat would be packing for the White House.
They trumpeted their role in helping Democrats take control of Congress last year. They met in dozens of progressive training sessions and were wooed by six of the eight Democratic presidential candidates. And in the middle of the annual Take Back America conference—its first incarnation five years ago drew a determined contingent of about 150 activists—they filled the hotel ballroom with tumultuous applause while the event's undisputed star, presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, dazzled with his "time to turn the page" speech. "Electrifying," said Massachusetts state Rep. Jim Marzilli.
But less than 24 hours later, a chill settled over the last day of the conference. Morning newspapers carried late news out of California: During a West Coast trip, two-term New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has been exploring an independent or third-party presidential run, announced he'd quit the Republican Party. A longtime Democrat, Bloomberg in 2001 had switched parties to run for mayor on the GOP and independent party lines, avoiding a packed Democratic primary field.
So as the conference drew to a close, instead of looking to next year and the pursuit of their top issues—ending the Iraq war and reforming the healthcare system—many of them were looking back to 2000. That's when, with the aid of the Supreme Court, third-party candidate Ralph Nader helped give the presidency to George W. Bush instead of Democrat Al Gore. Was this déjà vu all over again? Would billionaire Bloomberg run, and whom would he hurt?
"Our" agenda. In the halls of the Hilton, that was a no-brainer. "He could sell out the Democratic Party like Nader," said Gene Estess of Brooklyn. "An independent is not going to win this election; it would be handing it to the Republicans." Robert Borosage, codirector of Campaign for America's Future and a founder of the conference, said the mayor—who favors abortion rights and gay rights, supports gun control, and has an aggressive environmental agenda—"draws from us; if he runs, he runs on our progressive agenda."
When he ran for his second mayoral term, Bloomberg pulled 47 percent of the black vote, an "extraordinary realignment that shattered the Democratic Party," said Jackie Salit, who coordinated both of his campaigns on the independent line. "I think there are parallels."
Bloomberg continues to insist he is not planning to run and intends to serve out his term as mayor. But he has been investigating rules to get on state ballots, made a recent trip to New Hampshire, where the first primary will be held in January, and has been making speeches across the country. Speculation is that he will make an announcement after the February 5 Super Tuesday, when more than 20 states will hold primaries or caucuses. "He's not going to go in it to hurt someone," said Maurice Carroll, a longtime New York City reporter who's now director for the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He'll go in to win." And with a multibillion-dollar fortune at his disposal, Bloomberg is almost guaranteed to get on the ballots and can pay workers down to the grass-roots level.
Marzilli, whose district includes Bloomberg's hometown, said, in the end, he believes the mayor won't run: "It's a shame to think of such an innovator as a spoiler, but in a two-party system, that's what he becomes." Borosage was more sanguine. "I think there is so much enthusiasm among independents and Democrats in general about unifying, that it would be very hard to overcome," he said. But, he predicted, a lot of people are going to make a lot of money consulting for the New York mayor. True, no doubt, whatever Bloomberg decides.
This story appears in the July 2, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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