Bush Strikes Out on Immigration
"I think that the willingness to address the problem is the No. 1 issue," said Michele Waslin, director of immigration policy research at La Raza.
A growing rift between Hispanics and the GOP could have ominous political overtones. The Hispanic population grew by more than 20 percent between 2000 and 2005 and now represents the country's largest minority group. Using 2004 exit poll numbers and projected increases in the Hispanic population, the Democratic microtargeting firm Strategic Telemetry estimated that Hispanic voters would move the battleground states of Nevada and New Mexico into the Democratic column by 2016. If the 2004 election were replayed in 2020, the study calculated, the Democratic candidate would also take Iowa and Ohio, winning the White House with 283 electoral votes.
The changes in the primary schedule for 2008 will only accelerate the emergence of Hispanics as a crucial voter group. In part to have the eventual nominee better represent Latino voters, the DNC moved up the Nevada caucus to January 19, between the more monochromatic Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. A number of states with large Hispanic populations—including Florida, California, and New Jersey—have also moved up their own primaries to closely follow New Hampshire.
"We'll have what I refer to as 'Hispanic Tuesday,'" says Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University, a play on the "Super Tuesday" cluster of primaries. But the real Hispanic Tuesday may not come until Nov. 4, 2008, when voters will pick a new occupant of the White House.
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