False Hopes and the Iowa Straw Poll
On its face, the decisions by Republican presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain to skip the Iowa straw poll in August—traditionally seen as an important test of early strength—seem to offer a rare opportunity for second-tier hopefuls to get some love in a state crucial to the nomination.
Hopefuls like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, for example, who has performed well in Republican debates and delivers a conservative message that Iowa party leaders say resonates with many voters in the Hawkeye State.
But Huckabee's support in Iowa is stuck in the low single digits. Giuliani, McCain, and Mitt Romney are bunched at the top of the Iowa preference polls, all averaging about 20 percent support in various polls, though the most recent Des Moines Register poll of "likely Republican caucus participants" had Romney comfortably ahead with 30 percent.
The calculation for Huckabee, however, is not as simple as it sounds. He told me yesterday that when the two top GOP candidates announced last week they'd bypass the straw poll (Romney has strongly committed to participate) and focus their efforts in Iowa instead on the state's influential January caucuses, "they've kind of plowed up the infield."
And his campaign is now reconsidering whether to throw its resources into Iowa this week in anticipation of the poll, expected to attract up to 50,000 state GOP loyalists to Ames on August 11.
"With the two front-runners leaving the field, will it get much attention? Will people in your profession care as much about the straw poll with Giuliani and Senator McCain not participating?" Huckabee asked. "We already barely get mentioned—Britney Spears getting out of a car in her underwear gets more attention than we do."
The man has a point. After the Giuliani announcement, followed closely by McCain's (McCain also bypassed the poll when he ran for the nomination in 1999—because of the influence of money, he said; others said it was because his support was weak), some in the media joked about now being able to schedule August vacations. In Iowa, however, disappointed state Republican Chairman Chuck Laudner said there is a risk associated with snubbing the 28-year-old straw poll, last held in 1999 when 23,685 participants gave then candidate George W. Bush the win; flat-taxer Steve Forbes was a distant second.
"Has this caused some animosity? Yes," Laudner said. "This is [the candidates'] show, their chance to shine and our activists have been working on this for over a year.
"When one of them bolts, and now two, it's like a slap in the face—you can't ignore it. It's real," he said.
The straw poll is part state fair, part grass-roots politicking, and all fundraising for the state party. It is all about expectations, an into-the-fall boost for top vote-getters, and a possible nail in the coffin for those who perform poorly. Eight years ago, the event brought in $1 million, Laudner said, and it closed the door on presidential runs by the likes of Lamar Alexander.
But because participants pay to attend—their $35 entrance ticket serves as their ballot—the poll has been harshly criticized for simply rewarding candidates with the most money to buy tickets, charter buses, and serve up entertainment to get supporters to the event. Vote-buying, pure and simple, critics say. Giuliani's campaign estimated that it could save about $3 million by not assembling a straw poll operation. (After candidates began busing supporters from out of state to vote in the 1990s, the party began requiring that participants show proof of residency.)
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