Bush Tests Clout on Immigration Bill
President Bush was to test the limits of his fading clout today, urging GOP senators at a policy luncheon to breathe new life into the compromise immigration bill that stalled last week.
The physical trek to the Capitol luncheon is the least of the president's uphill struggles. Only seven Republican senators voted Thursday to end debate on the immigration bill, which fell 15 votes short of the 60 needed, causing Majority Leader Harry Reid to pull the legislation. Reid has insisted on stronger Republican support before he gives what he calls "the president's bill" more time in the busy calendar before the July 4 recess.
The bargain— brokered by about a dozen senators of both parties — would have allowed illegal immigrants in the country before 2007 to receive renewable four-year visas after paying fees and fines, and eventually to get on a path to citizenship. It would also create a two-year guest worker program. Both programs were contingent on the government reaching certain security benchmarks, which included the hiring of thousands of border agents and the construction of hundreds of miles of fencing.
Playing off a comment by Republican Sen. Arlen Specter last week that the bill was "on life support," John Gay, a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association, said he put the odds at just over 50 percent that the bill will eventually pass.
"I think it's improving," Gay said. "It's off life support and on intensive care."
The president was similarly bullish about the legislation's prospects Monday, telling reporters in Bulgaria, "I'll see you at the bill signing."
Indeed, the lopsided cloture vote is a poor gauge of support for the bill. Republican complaints that Reid had prematurely cut off debate on GOP amendments led many, including some of the chief architects of the compromise, to vote against the motion. Once it became clear the cloture motion would fail, conservative Democratic senators felt less need to display party loyalty and potentially anger constituents.
"There are at least 15 votes still on the Republican side that could have easily gone the other way," says Marshall Fitz, chief lobbyist for the American Immigration Lawyers Association. "So it may not be that the president needs to encourage people who already are locked into opposing this bill to go in the other direction."
But there are high hurdles to passage. Republican senators are unlikely to allow the legislation to go to a vote without more opportunities to debate amendments. But the "grand bargain" spent most of last week in danger of collapse, and further amendments by either side will strain the coalition.
Now that the immigration compromise has snarled the Senate for two weeks, the House is increasingly unlikely to take on companion legislation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, expecting significant dissent from her own party, has insisted that sympathetic Republicans round up 70 GOP votes before she brings any legislation to the floor.
Additionally, Bush has not always been the most effective advocate for immigration reform. Arguing for the bill last month, Bush angered many in his base by suggesting that those describing the bill as amnesty were using scare tactics. Mississippi Republican Sen. Trent Lott, who favors comprehensive immigration reform, said the comments were "not helpful" and said Bush should focus his attention elsewhere.