Peering Into His Soul May Not Be Enough
Six years ago, George Bush looked Vladimir Putin in the eye and got a reassuring "sense of his soul." Some skeptics warned that personal intuition was a thin reed on which to base hopes for future U.S.-Russian relations, particularly when the object of W's Vulcan mind meld was a cagey ex-KGB officer.
Those doubts seem to have been vindicated. Relations between the two nations have grown so brittle that observers are talking about a new Cold War. The most dramatic proof was in Putin's recent threats to aim missiles at Europe if Bush went ahead with plans to install antiballistic missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. To Bush's reassurance that he was only trying to protect Europe from a potential Iranian attack, Putin replied that such a threat did not exist. Putin also complained correctly that Russia has pared down its arsenal while America has gone in the other direction, even withdrawing from the antiballistic missile treaty.
But last week it looked as though personal politics might put a lid on simmering tensions. In a private meeting at the Group of Eight conference in Germany, the Russian leader made a counterproposal: Why not install the defense system in Azerbaijan? Bush called the suggestion "interesting." And even before the meeting, Bush had invited Putin to his parents' home in Kennebunkport, Maine, presumably for another round of soul-reading. Should we all breathe a sigh of relief?
Maybe not. The personal element may play an important role in international relations, but it can't trump the political character and self-interest of nations. Changes in Putin's Russia have not been promising. Steadily dismantling a fledgling post-communist civil society, including a free press, the new Kremlin elite has shaped a suave authoritarianism that will very likely survive Putin when his second term ends early next year. Observers certainly see no end to a politics of intimidation that has left murdered dissidents and journalists in its wake. And intimidation extends abroad, with Moscow using its gas and oil to bully close neighbors like Ukraine and Georgia. Given such realities, Bush might recall Ronald Reagan's advice during his next chat with Putin: Peer into his soul, but verify.
This story appears in the June 18, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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