This Bargain Wouldn't Sell
Everyone found something to dislike about the 'grand compromise' on immigration, so the deal collapsed and a dysfunctional status quo endures
How the public feels about that is difficult to discern. Surveys have generally shown respondents in both parties supporting a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants and even suggest that the loaded word "amnesty" isn't a deal breaker. But recent surveys also show the difficulty in crafting a popular bill. Though favoring the compromise's major provisions, respondents were opposed to the bill itself.
The setback does not mean nothing is being done on immigration. Spurred by legislation that Congress passed last year, the Border Patrol is in the midst of a hiring spree which is slated to add 6,000 new agents by the end of 2008. The border now features 87 miles of fencing, but the Border Patrol is hoping to increase the total to 370 miles by 2009. But the failure of the new bill leaves unclear the status of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the country, while also essentially leaving in place a backlogged system for legally admitting foreigners.
Publicly, the backers of the compromise aren't giving up. Immediately after cloture failed, Reid contended the Senate needed to move on to other priorities but that he would eventually regroup and return to the bill. And supporters point out that the cloture vote is an imperfect gauge of support for the legislation, since Republicans were protesting what they say were insufficient opportunities to vote on amendments. Those voting no on cloture included three grand bargainers and a handful of others who traditionally back comprehensive reform.
But the challenges of resurrecting legislation are daunting. Even if it had passed the Senate, the immigration measure faced long odds in the House, which voted to make being in the country illegally a felony when in Republican control in 2005. With elections every two years, representatives are more fearful of angering constituents than their Senate counterparts, and 61 Democratic House members now hail from districts won by President Bush in 2004. Expecting significant revolt in her party's ranks, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has stated that Republican supporters of immigration reform would need to round up 70 votes—more than a third of the caucus—before she brings a bill to the floor.
The chances of a bill only decrease as the 2008 election increasingly dominates Washington politics and senators running for the White House jockey for position on immigration. Even after the inauguration, the next president is unlikely to show the same interest in immigration reform as Bush, a former border state governor.
Given the challenges, Reid was perhaps being more frank hours before the cloture vote, when he was asked whether, if the bill failed, he would ever bring immigration reform to the floor as majority leader again.
"Well, ever's a long time," he said.
Given the political realities of the moment, the ugly duckling may not fly.
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